Monday, March 02, 2026

How Russia plans to militarize the planned demilitarized zone

From UNIAN:

"The Spectator: The Russian National Guard could become Putin's "Trojan horse" in Donbas  

Yuri Kobzar, 12/14/25 

The Americans are trying to turn political statements into a peace agreement without delving into the details

One of the main, if not the main, stumbling block in the US-brokered peace talks between Ukraine and Russia is the Donbas issue. The proposal to make it a "demilitarized zone" cannot be implemented because Russia already has a ready-made plan to violate this condition, writes Mark Galeotti, political analyst and Emeritus Professor at the School of Slavonic and East European Studies at the University of London, in The Spectator. 

He recalls that the Americans are currently trying to find an acceptable formula by which Russia can obtain the remaining part of Donbas. The Ukrainian leadership is concerned not only about the very fact of handing over this territory without a fight, but also about the threat that Russia will use it as a springboard for a further offensive deeper into Ukraine.

One potential workaround being discussed is the creation of a demilitarized zone: the Ukrainian army would withdraw from the rest of Donbas, but the Russian army would not enter. Public order in these cities would be maintained by the police. But this isn't so straightforward, and the Americans seem to be missing the main problem.

Putin's aide, Yuri Ushakov, has already told journalists that Moscow has agreed not to deploy its troops to the demilitarized zone, and that instead, only Russian police and the National Guard will be stationed there. It is this National Guard that poses the main problem, Galeotti writes.

The Russian National Guard is a separate law enforcement agency that reports directly to the President of the Russian Federation. Unlike the Ukrainian National Guard, the Russian National Guard is not part of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, although it performs essentially the same functions – it is a militarized organization focused primarily on maintaining domestic law and order in cases where regular police forces are insufficient.    

The Russian National Guard has approximately 180,000 personnel. These are primarily heavily armed rapid response units known as SOBR, OMON, and the Internal Troops. The latter are closer in nature to a full-fledged army than a law enforcement agency. For example, the 1st Separate Operational Division of the Internal Troops has its own tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery.

As Galeotti notes, the Russian National Guard participated in the 2022 invasion of Ukraine and is now primarily responsible for repression in the occupied territories. 

If these units enter Kostiantynivka, Druzhkovka, Kramatorsk, and Slovyansk under the peace agreement, they will terrorize the civilian population there, as they did in the other occupied territories. Furthermore, although the Russian National Guard is formally a law enforcement agency, it is de facto an army, with all the attendant risks.  

"This is, in many ways, an example of how complex the peace process in Ukraine is, and also an example of how illogical Trump's diplomacy is. Usually, grand public statements are the result of months or years of painstaking work behind the scenes; now, people are trying to translate general political statements into realistic plans. The idea of ​​creating a demilitarized zone may have seemed like an elegant way to reconcile Putin's demands and Ukraine's interests, but it's much more complicated," the analyst concludes."

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