ISW: Russia increases its partnership with India

From the Institute for the Study of War:

"Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 6, 2025

...A February 2025 Russian drone strike on the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) rendered the protective structure of the NPP unable to fulfill its primary safety functions. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi stated on December 5 that an IAEA inspection team confirmed during the week of November 28 to December 5 that the February 14, 2025 Russian drone strike on the Chornobyl NPP severely damaged the New Safe Confinement (NSC) structure enclosing the remains of the plant’s reactor No.4 such that the NSC can no longer fulfill its primary safety functions, including its confinement capabilities.[19] Grossi added that the plant requires comprehensive repairs to “ensure long term nuclear safety.” The Kremlin has periodically conducted information operations aimed at portraying Ukraine as endangering the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia NPP (ZNPP), but continued Russian strikes and shelling against Ukrainian NPPs, as well as Russia’s consistent mismanagement of the ZNPP, highlight that Russia remains the actual danger to Ukrainian NPPs.[20]

The Kremlin appears to be increasingly leaning on India to alleviate domestic labor shortages and is setting conditions for India to support drone production for Russia’s war effort. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov announced on December 5 that Russia may accept an “unlimited number” of migrant workers from India under the new bilateral labor mobility agreement signed on December 5 in New Delhi.[21] Manturov stated that Russian manufacturing industries have a labor shortage of 800,000 workers, and that Russian trade, construction, and service industries have a labor shortage of 1.5 million workers. Manturov stated that it will likely take Russia well over a year to set the conditions necessary to accept, employ, and process many Indian migrants. Kherson Oblast occupation head Vladimir Saldo stated on December 6 that regional occupation authorities discussed possible business cooperation with Indian partners at a recent international investment forum.[22] Saldo stated that occupation authorities are ready to attract Indian migrant workers to strengthen the region’s agricultural industry and to work with Indian partners to integrate occupied Kherson Oblast into international trade corridors.

Head of the Russian state-owned defense conglomerate Rostec, Sergey Chemezov, stated on December 5 that Russia is in discussions with India to localize production of Russian drones, such as Lancet loitering munitions, in India.[23] Russian President Vladimir Putin gave an interview on December 4 to English-language news magazine India Today, wherein he highlighted that Russia is not just selling military equipment to India but also sharing technology for shipbuilding and missile and aircraft manufacturing.[24] Putin stated that India uses Russian Su-57 fighter aircraft and produces Russian T-90 tanks and Russian-Indian BrahMos cruise missiles in India. Putin and Chemezov’s statements suggest that the Kremlin is considering expanding joint weapon production in India to drones that Russia would very likely use on the battlefield in Ukraine, possibly in exchange for Russian technological innovations and lessons learned in Ukraine. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger notably reported on December 5 that a delegation of the Smolensk Oblast First Person View (FPV) Drone Piloting Center arrived in India to complete objectives within the framework of the Russian-Indian strategic partnership.[25] The milblogger added that the center has already started training the first international FPV drone piloting group in Russia in cooperation with Smolensk Oblast Medical University and arrived in Goa, India to discuss training for Indian drone operations with the Indian Sport Ministry.[26]

India’s increased partnerships with Russia come against the backdrop of Russia’s growing reliance on North Korea and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to support the war in Ukraine. Russia is reportedly localizing Garpiya drone production in the PRC, and PRC-origin drone components have been critical in Russia’s efforts to adapt its drones to gain battlefield advantages.[27] North Korea has reportedly started mass production of short range FPV drones and medium range strike drones in North Korea, possibly to provide to Russia in the future, and has provided Russia with soldiers, artillery shells, and missiles.[28] Russia is also reportedly relying on North Korea for migrant workers, including to work at Russia’s Alabuga Special Economic Zone (ASEZ) in the Republic of Tatarstan to produce Shahed-type drones.[29] North Korea, in turn, is also receiving direct combat experience operating drones in exchange for its materiel, manpower, and labor support.[30]

Key Takeaways

1. Russian forces launched 704 total missiles and drones against Ukraine overnight on December 5 to 6, heavily targeting railway and energy infrastructure across the country.
2. The US and Ukrainian negotiating delegations agreed that any progress toward peace talks to end the war in Ukraine is dependent on Russia’s readiness to demonstrate a good faith commitment to long term peace.
3. Ukrainian forces continue to hold positions within Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad while Russian forces are complicating Ukrainian logistics in the area.
4. A February 2025 Russian drone strike on the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) rendered the protective structure of the NPP unable to fulfill its primary safety functions.
5. The Kremlin appears to be increasingly leaning on India to alleviate domestic labor shortages and is setting conditions for India to support drone production for Russia’s war effort.
6. India’s increased partnerships with Russia come against the backdrop of Russia’s growing reliance on North Korea and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to support the war in Ukraine..."