From UNIAN:
"Trump's "Peace" Business Plan
Igar Tyshkevich, Political Analyst, 21.11.25
A brief overview of Trump's 28 points for Ukraine.
Territories—what I previously described as the so-called "Georgian" or, if you prefer, "Korean" scenario—non-political recognition of the occupation, but de facto recognition. It's like the US didn't recognize the USSR's occupation of the Baltic states until they seceded from the Soviet Union.
The demilitarized zone—a topic that has also come up before in discussions about security guarantees and international forces that would control a certain zone. Now Trump is defining its borders and legal status. But in a format unacceptable (in terms of size and political significance) for Ukraine.
Ukraine without NATO, NATO without Ukraine—this has already been suggested by the US. And this is a geopolitical concession for Russia, one that Washington is willing to make.
A Ukrainian army of 600,000? Well, by 2022, it was 250-270. And Ukraine simply can't afford a peacetime army of 1 million. So, it's a perfectly acceptable option.
Everything else is about profit and advantage for the US, and only for the US. Judge for yourself:
Frozen Russian assets are being unfrozen, and some are being transferred to another category—the US-led Ukraine Recovery Fund, where the United States receives 50% of the investment profits. This likely refers to the fund to be created under the resource agreement. In other words, Washington is filling it with Russian money and profiting from it. A brilliant scheme.
The EU is also investing 100 billion, but it's unclear whose money (probably European) it is. And the question is: "Where" is it investing it? If it's investing it in the aforementioned fund, then the US is profiting from a package worth not 100 billion, but 200 billion.
The remaining 290 billion rubles of frozen Russian assets are being channeled into another investment vehicle. And there's no information about its concentration on Ukrainian projects. These are "American investments" of former Russian money, most likely in Russia or Russian projects. In other words, Trump will try to play the same game with the Kremlin.
Meanwhile, the "remaining" money could be used, in particular, for projects to restore gas transit from Russia to the EU. A shell company will be created (which may become a shareholder in the Ukrainian gas transmission system), and it will then purchase gas from Russia and sell it to Europeans as "American." Remember RosUkrEnergo? This will be RosAmEnergo.
The "payment for US guarantees" is a whole other story. It's not yet clear what exactly these are. In the best-case scenario, it's weapons and commitments to supply them. In the worst-case scenario, it's the Budapest Memorandum for money.
And finally, there's a curious clause about overseeing the treaty's implementation by a "Peace Council headed by Trump." Adding a person's name to the treaty automatically limits its validity. Why? Humans don't live forever. And the question is, will Trump continue to be the "chairman of the council" after his term ends? And if the "chairman" is an ordinary American retiree, what value will this oversight have?
So we have a typical Trump business plan for making money from war."
No comments:
Post a Comment