From the Wall Street Journal / MSN, November 29, 2025:
"New Peace Push Offers Clues to Fundamental Question: What Does Putin Want?
A
28-point plan and President Vladimir Putin’s response to it have
offered some of the best clues yet to a fundamental question bedeviling
peace talks: What does the Russian leader want?
The
plan, which has been revised since it was leaked last week, drew
pushback from Ukraine and its supporters in Congress and Europe for
hewing to Moscow’s uncompromising vision for a postwar settlement.
Still, Putin has shown little interest in signing it.
On Thursday, he described the proposal
as a list of questions—each one requiring hard work to resolve—and he
made one of his most explicit demands yet for the territory that has
been at the center of negotiations.
Ukraine
has vowed to never cede territory to Russia. But the problem for
Ukraine and many of its Western backers is that Russia’s stated goals
extend far beyond conquering eastern Ukraine—an impression that was only
reinforced by elements of the 28-point plan.
Putin’s
statements suggest that ultimately the Russian leader wants to deprive
Ukraine of its sovereignty, restore Moscow’s influence over Kyiv and
roll back the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s encroachment into a
region that Russia sees as its sphere of influence. That would mean any
agreement that doesn’t satisfy Putin’s core objectives would likely be a
prelude to a new invasion aimed at securing them.
“Anything that prevents a future war is unacceptable for Putin,” said
Russian economist Konstantin Sonin, a professor at the University of
Chicago Harris School of Public Policy. “There is no future for Russia
which does not involve continuing to fight for Ukraine until Ukraine is
fully integrated into Russia.”...
White House special envoy Steve Witkoff... drafted the plan with input from Kremlin confidant Kirill Dmitriev. A transcript of a call
published by Bloomberg News this week showed Witkoff advised a top
Kremlin aide, Yuri Ushakov, on how Putin should approach a conversation
with Trump.
In
the call, Witkoff suggested to Ushakov that territory in eastern
Ukraine might be the key to unlocking a peace deal. “Me to you, I know
what it’s going to take to get a peace deal done. Donetsk and maybe a
land swap somewhere,” he said.
The
plan Witkoff drafted called for limiting the size of Ukraine’s
military, blocking its path to joining NATO and prohibiting the
alliance’s troops from stepping foot on Kyiv’s territory. But Putin’s
own words indicate Moscow is interested in much more.
Putin
has often referred to the “root causes” of the conflict. He invokes
centurieslong historical grievances to justify the invasion and advance
claims that any moves by Kyiv toward the West are a historical
aberration.
In
essays and speeches throughout his quarter-century rule, Putin has
described modern Ukraine as an artificial construct created by early
Soviet leaders and said Ukrainians and Russians are one people. In an
essay he published in July 2021, which was made mandatory reading for
all Russian soldiers and is now seen as the prelude to his invasion of
Ukraine the following year, he lamented Ukraine’s drift away from Russia
and promised to reverse it.
“The
formation of an ethnically pure Ukrainian state, aggressive toward
Russia, is comparable in its consequences to the use of weapons of mass
destruction against us,” he wrote.
Putin
describes Ukraine as part of a single “historical and spiritual space”
with Russia. In a February 2022 speech announcing the invasion, he said
Ukraine had been hijacked by hostile forces intent on wiping out the
Russian speakers living in its eastern provinces. He singled out the
diminishing influence of the Russian-backed Orthodox Church in Ukraine.
The
28-point plan would oblige Ukraine to adopt rules on the protection of
linguistic minorities and religious tolerance, a clear nod to Putin’s
complaints. It would also compel Kyiv to roll back many restrictions
placed on the use of Russian in public spaces.
Prominent
Russian figures have helped broadcast Putin’s narrative, among them
Alexander Dugin, whom some call “Putin’s brain” because he long promoted
ideas Putin ultimately adopted.
In
a recent post on Telegram, Dugin described work under way for “mass
treatment and psychological rehabilitation” of Ukrainians. “Ukraine will
be entirely ours within at most two years—quite possibly much sooner,”
Dugin wrote on Telegram on Sunday. “There will no longer be even the
slightest trace of sovereignty there, since Ukrainians are absolutely
incapable of using it.”
A draft treaty the Kremlin drew up with Ukrainian officials in Istanbul
in the spring of 2022, which was ultimately not agreed upon, provided a
clue to the concessions Russia might try to force from Ukraine if
Western military support dries up and Moscow’s forces continue to make
significant territorial gains.
That
draft treaty, which Putin has cited as a starting point for talks,
included a ban on heavy weaponry for Ukraine and would render it a
“permanently neutral state that doesn’t participate in military blocs.”
It capped its armed forces at 85,000 troops, less than 10% of its
current strength, and set limits on its long-range weapons..."
