The Trump
administration has advanced a 28-point plan aimed at securing peace
between Russia and Ukraine, which critics say would force Kyiv’s
surrender to Moscow.
The plan, first leaked
to the news site Axios on Wednesday, appears to have been developed in
negotiations between U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff — a billionaire
New York real-estate lawyer President Donald Trump has known since the
1980s — and Kirill Dmitriev, the chief executive of a $10 billion
Russian sovereign wealth fund with close ties to Russian President
Vladimir Putin.
Neither Ukraine nor America’s European allies were consulted in developing the proposal.
Among the plan’s major points
are territorial concessions to Russia; a reduction of the Ukrainian
military by half; a promise not to join NATO; amnesty for all crimes
committed during the conflict; a prohibition against European troops
being stationed in Ukraine; forced elections in Kyiv 100 days after
signing the deal; a prohibition against long-range strikes into Russia;
and the establishment of a $100 billion reconstruction fund using seized
Russian assets — of which the U.S. would get 50 percent of the profits.
Washington
is ready to cut off intelligence and weapons to Ukraine in order to
force it to sign the deal ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S.,
according to a report from Reuters, citing multiple insiders.
“Right
now is one of the hardest moments in our history. Right now, Ukraine is
under some of the heaviest pressure yet,” Zelensky said in a video address
to the nation Friday in Kyiv. “Right now, Ukraine may find itself
facing a very tough choice. Either the loss of our dignity or the risk
of losing a key partner.”
The U.S. previously cut off intelligence and weapons to Ukraine in March, after a disastrous meeting
in the White House, in which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was
publicly berated by Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance.
Months of efforts by Zelensky to repair relations between Kyiv and Washington — including a carefully choreographed “impromptu” meeting with Trump organized by the Vatican at the funeral for Pope Francis in April, the signing of an agreement
to give the U.S. access to rare-earths minerals in Ukraine, and even
Zelensky forsaking a vow not to wear a suit until the war was over
(seemingly to please the U.S. president) — have now fallen to pieces.
Zelensky
is under tremendous pressure not just from Washington and Moscow, but
also at home, where a major corruption scandal involving key advisers
has engulfed his administration and sapped domestic support just as the
war is entering one of its grimmest phases.
Sustained
Russian airstrikes using massive waves of drones and cruise and
ballistic missiles have caused major damage to critical infrastructure,
especially its electrical system. Rolling blackouts are common, and even
with Ukrainians long accustomed to relying on generators and backup
systems, the disruptions affect virtually every aspect of daily life in
most major cities.
Direct
attacks on civilians are also common. A Russian cruise missile plowed
into an apartment building in the Western city of Ternopil on Tuesday.
The death toll from that single strike now stands at 31, and Ukrainian
social media is awash with the tragic details of the victims, including
at least six children — and a mother and daughter whose bodies were
found in the rubble, clinging together.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s military situation is deteriorating. In a recent trip to a frontline area in Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, Rolling Stone
witnessed exhausted soldiers stretched thin, with evidence of Russian
incursions penetrating loosely held and widely spaced defensive
positions. Such attacks may be costly for the Russians — who routinely
sacrifice hundreds of soldiers a day to keep pressing forward — but they
are also taking a significant toll on Ukrainian defenders.
No
reliable casualty estimates exist, but the best guess of governments
and independent analysts routinely puts the dead, missing, and wounded
from both sides at nearly one million, or more.
During
his campaign for a second term, Trump vowed to end the war in Ukraine
in “24 hours.” Although that clearly did not happen, a rehabilitation of
Washington’s relations with Russia is well underway.
The
Trump White House has systematically excised Ukraine supporters from
its ranks. Mike Waltz, the former National Security Adviser who was
hawkish on Russia prior to joining Team Trump, has been relegated to a
meaningless ambassadorship at the United Nations. The Special Envoy for
Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg — a retired Army lieutenant general
that the Kremlin regularly attacks as a hardliner — is throwing in the
towel after being routinely ignored by the White House for nearly a
year, and will depart his post in January.
Secretary
of State Marco Rubio, a former Russia hawk who is also Trump’s acting
National Security Adviser, has receded from a major role in the Ukraine
negotiations, leaving them instead in the hands of Witkoff.
Witkoff’s
lack of international, government, or diplomatic experience has led to
missteps — including assuming a Kremlin translator in a meeting with
Putin was sent by the U.S. embassy — but as a Trump crony and loyalist,
he appears to be immune to criticism. The real estate lawyer was
scheduled to meet with Zelensky in Turkey on Wednesday to present his
peace plan, but the Ukrainian leader pulled out, saying he had a
different plan that must be discussed in a broader format with European
leaders.
While many
observers had hoped Trump was coming around in his views on the war in
Ukraine, the reality is that despite a variety of statements promising
action at unspecified future dates, he has continued to treat Putin with
deference. The Trump White House has taken no significant action
against Russia to force a more equitable and lasting solution to the
conflict.
Putin has
proven adept at playing to Trump’s ego, often agreeing to meetings —
such as in Alaska in August — and phone calls to discuss the situation,
but rarely following through with meaningful commitments. A proposed
peace summit in Budapest fell apart over technical details.
While
Russia is suffering mightily under sanctions and Ukraine’s increasingly
effective campaign to disrupt its oil and energy infrastructure using
long-range missile and drone strikes, the Kremlin has little incentive
to give up on its maximalist demands: the seizure of vast swaths of
Ukraine; regime change in Kyiv; dismantling of the Ukrainian military;
and the acknowledgement that its sphere of influence extends into
Europe. The proposed plan would deliver these to Putin.
Setting
aside the viability of the other points, a major issue for both
Ukrainians and Europeans is the mechanism by which any promises Russia
makes about future non-aggression and integrity of borders can be
trusted. Russia has previously, under Putin, repeatedly broken multiple
international agreements.
Europeans evinced shock and dismay at the Witkoff-Dmitriev proposal.
“All
the decisions concerning Poland will be taken by Poles. Nothing about
us without us,” wrote Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, apparently in
reference to one of the plan’s clauses concerning the stationing of
European fighter aircraft in Poland, which in practice appears to mean
an agreement between Washington and Moscow to limit U.S. forces in
Eastern Europe. “When it comes to peace, all the negotiations should
include Ukraine. Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.”
The
proposed peace plan adds to growing consternation in Europe — and among
other U.S. allies — about Washington’s long-term intentions in the
region. Last month, the U.S. announced it was pulling a brigade of
soldiers out of Romania, and it remains antipathetic to military
commitments in Europe.
The leaders of Europe’s major powers are now trying to contain the fallout.
“Ukraine
can count on us. Together with [French President] Emmanuel Macron and
[U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, I reaffirmed our full support to
Zelensky,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz wrote after a joint call
with the embattled Ukrainian. “We will coordinate closely with Europe
and the U.S., whose commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty we welcome.”
The
proposed peace plan will certainly be rejected by Kyiv, and it isn’t
yet clear whether it will even succeed in becoming the starting point
for further discussions.
Another
non-starter deal is a diplomatic failure — whether by design,
ineptitude, or malice — and it means another delay in serious peace
negotiations.
And that means the war grinds on."
