From the Obozrevatel:
"The US is preparing for war, Trump is giving Orbán a "respite," and Russia is setting conditions for ending its aggression against Ukraine. Interview with former Ambassador to the US Shamshur
Roman Pryadun, 11/12/2025
Oleh Shamshur, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to the United States and France, shared his thoughts... in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA.
- ...Trump's "personal" foreign policy once again revealed itself – a meeting at the White House with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. After which, the American leader, as if from a king's shoulder, announced: sanctions against Budapest will not be imposed for a year. Orbán can safely receive Russian energy resources, despite demanding the opposite from the EU. Yes, there is a caveat: Hungary must also purchase American gas, nuclear fuel, and certain technologies. What does Trump's decision mean for the US? Because it clearly benefits Budapest and Moscow: the oil is flowing, Orbán is happy, and so is Putin. But for Europe, it means a dilution of sanctions pressure. If Trump made an exception for Orbán today, tomorrow he will do the same for someone else he will be pleased with.
Let's start with the logic of the visit itself. First, Orbán is undoubtedly pleased with the results. Yes, he didn't achieve his "maximum program," but he achieved his goal—the sanctions have been postponed. We'll see what happens in a year, but the fact itself is a political victory for him.
When explaining the postponement, Trump stated that Hungary had reached a "dead end" and could not act differently. In other words, he effectively vindicated Orbán before Europe. And this already creates a sense of "most favored nation" treatment for Budapest from Washington.
Next up is nuclear energy. We've already heard about the easing of sanctions that could have blocked the completion of the Hungarian nuclear power plant. However, Orbán has promised to buy American nuclear fuel. How this will be implemented remains to be seen, but Orbán's main goal now is to continue joint projects with Russia.
The political aspect is no less interesting. It's quite possible that Orbán was "whispering" his narratives on Ukraine to Trump. And, judging by some of Trump's statements after the meeting, these whispers fell on fertile ground. There is a certain commonality in their ideas about "settling" the war. It's possible that the topic of the "Budapest meetings" was raised again behind the scenes: the idea of returning to the format that Orbán has long been trying to revive. He certainly brought home something that can be presented as a political victory. And, of course, he has something to report to "friend Volodymyr." After all, Trump seems to regard Orbán not just with understanding, but with a certain reverence.
– As for Russia...
Here, everything is clear: the easing of sanctions is "music to Putin's ears," as they say. But for the European Union, this story is another cold shower. Anyone in Brussels who seriously considers strategic autonomy has received further confirmation: Orbán is Moscow's Trojan horse. And that easing the sanctions regime, even as imperfect as it is, is a dangerous game. Trump's showering of compliments on Orbán came as a shock to Europeans. Because it seemed almost like a direct appeal: "Follow Orbán's example." After this, Brussels was once again convinced that Budapest is the problem, and that now there is a "protector" behind it, namely, Trump himself.
- And finally, the United States...
My subjective opinion is that Trump isn't thrilled about this meeting, but he couldn't avoid it. Preparations dragged on for a long time. Clearly, there were debates within the administration. The tightening of sanctions could have happened at a time when oil prices allowed it with minimal risk to the American market. But despite everything, Trump went along with it not only for political reasons, but also for ideology. He likes Orbán: a conservative, anti-Brussels, "strongman." He's beloved among Trump's base. Therefore, Trump couldn't refuse him. It's telling that a meeting with a seemingly "minor" prime minister turned into an international event. This, in fact, is the main harm – political and symbolic.
- More broadly, Trump has recently adopted a very active policy toward Moscow's allies. The leaders of five Central Asian states visited the White House for the first time. The Americans have noticeably intensified contacts with Minsk: Lukashenko is releasing hostages, Washington is easing sanctions, and there are promises to further lift restrictions. In some areas—Hungary, Belarus, and Central Asia—the US is actively expanding its influence among countries that were, until recently, in Moscow's orbit. Is this a coincidence or a deliberate strategy?
As former Trump adviser John Bolton said, "Don't try to understand his foreign policy concept. He doesn't have one." Yes, formally speaking, a meeting with Central Asian leaders might seem like a strategic element. But we must be realistic: Trump's every strategy is a set of ad hoc agreements. He doesn't build systems; he bargains...
As for Belarus, if Trump is truly trying to initiate some kind of dialogue with Lukashenko, then, excuse me, it's complete nonsense. It's unclear why the US needs this. If the idea is to "pull Lukashenko away from Russia," then that's simply ridiculous. It's like back in the Obama era, when some people seriously thought Medvedev could be pulled away from Putin and exploited. Well, that's exactly the same story. Totally unrealistic.
Where could there be any pragmatic calculation here? Lukashenko is making demonstrative gestures—releasing political prisoners (though then immediately jailing others), and Trump will be able to say, "See, I can negotiate even with Belarus." So for him, this is a symbolic demonstration: I'm effective.
One more thing. This could very well be part of Putin's game. He could very well use the Belarusian channel to push his signals to Trump. Like, "See, even Lukashenko says the same thing as us." And here again, a logical question arises: why do the Americans need this at all? After all, Trump can easily call Putin directly or even send his "emissary" Vitkoff—hugs, smiles, agreements. So, frankly, I don't see a rational explanation for this flirtation with Lukashenko.
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated: "We are ready to meet with the Americans again, ready to negotiate an end to the conflict," as he calls it, "in Ukraine." But the "root causes" remain the same: "denazification" and all the rest. And another interesting detail – Anchorage. He says the agreements reached between Trump and Putin must be implemented. And Lavrov quotes: "The Americans assured us during Anchorage that they would ensure that Volodymyr Zelenskyy would not impede the peace process." So, it turns out that Trump allegedly promised them to essentially "break" Ukraine so that it would agree to Russia's terms, and they are waiting for that to happen.
I think, unfortunately, this assumption is not without foundation. Not "break," but at least influence. The US President wants "peace." He always has someone "bad": sometimes Zelensky, sometimes Putin, sometimes the other way around. It's a kind of "Trump swing." Therefore, what Lavrov said—about meetings, about Anchorage—all this shouldn't be dismissed. Obviously, it largely corresponds to what actually happened. Don't forget, after Alaska, Putin effectively "broke" Trump himself—and he emerged from the negotiations convinced that it wasn't simply necessary to stop the war, but to "address the global root causes." This is precisely what the Russians were counting on.
Why is all this happening again now? We've seen it before: whenever Trump's temper flares or he enters a state of rage, Russia immediately throws something out there. Sometimes it's the idea of mythical "economic projects," sometimes it's a "new bilateral meeting," sometimes it's Dmitriev, who's trying to "gently" test the waters. It's all a classic Russian "layered pie": pressure, a hint, and an attempt to defuse tension. And the effectiveness of this tactic shouldn't be underestimated, especially when it comes to influencing Trump."
