From Futura Doctrina:
"Putin’s Surprise Easter Truce
Putin’s cynical ploy to curry favour with the U.S. administration and keep them negotiating while Russian forces continue to seize or destroy as much of Ukraine as possible.
In the past 24 hours, the Russian president declared a unilateral Easter truce in Ukraine. I published some thoughts about this on social media and wanted to amplify them here.
This declaration by Putin is the unserious and cynical act of an individual who for the past three years and two months since the full-scale invasion has maintained his maximalist goals to destroy Ukrainian sovereignty and culture. He has overseen the systemic brutality and barbarism of his forces including murder and torture of civilians and soldiers, looting, kidnapping, castration and mistreatment of PoWs, attacks against civilian targets and the attempt to destroy Ukrainian culture.
And we are expected to believe that that same creature that has overseen all this also wants an Easter truce?
Why has Putin done this and what does it mean for the war?
The truce is a short one - about a day in duration, if Putin is to be believed (he shouldn’t). It is a truce that Putin has called unilaterally from the comfort of Moscow. As such, the truce is not binding on the Ukrainians in any way.
Putin has done this, not because he has a shred of empathy for the soldiers – of either side – fighting this war. He has done it because he still believes that he has the upper hand in the war and can dictate its tempo...
Putin will want to place Ukraine in the position where it is seen as the ‘truce breaker’ even though it was not party to the truce. There are more than enough people in the world willing to believe such things unfortunately.
Like many previous ceasefires, this is one that Putin has no intention of keeping. The Russian president has a long history of negotiating agreements and ceasefires which he has no intention of complying with. This recent news article published in the UK provides a pretty good round up of all of Putin’s dastardly, and no predictable, backflips on agreements with other nations.
Putin only takes actions that he believes will result in him gaining some form of advantage. This declaration of a unilateral Easter truce is no different. Ultimately, the ‘truce’ is about Putin giving the Trump administration what I described in my social media posts as “a little sugar”.
Putin does not want the war to end. He has too much invested in it personally, and he has re-shaped his country into a ‘war nation’. Putin also does not wish to step back from his maximalist objectives. But, at this point of the war, it is important to Putin that the Americans remain engaged, and that they do not step away from their role in negotiations...
At this point, Putin wants to keep the U.S. engaged in negotiations for as long as possible. There are several reasons for this. First, because the current American position favours Russia. Negotiators like Witkoff parrot Russian narratives and appear to be focussed on large-scale territorial concessions to Russia. At the same time, there is almost no prospect of American security guarantees for Ukraine. This makes it much easier for Putin to restart the conflict if there is a ceasefire in the near term.
A second reason why Putin doesn’t want the Trump administration to walk away from the Ukraine peace negotiations is that the Ukrainians and Europeans having to deal with Witkoff and others is wasting their time. It is absorbing the time and attention of key decision-makers to no effect and distracting them from more important strategic initiatives (like stepping up the pressure on Russia).
A third a final reason for continuing the U.S. role in negotiations is because they are are sowing discord and chaos among Ukraine’s supporters and allies. This allows Putin to pursue what a ‘systems destruction’ strategy which breaks down relationships and trusts between security partners that Putin both likes and is able to exploit.
Putin’s Easter truce is a message direct to Trump and members of his administration. The message from Putin is something like this:
Donald, my friend, I know you are frustrated. I feel your frustration with Ukraine as well. Look, I even declared a truce over Easter, which Ukraine has already broken. I am the good guy here - please stick with negotiations.
It is total garbage but some who wish to distance the U.S. from its previous policy of supporting Ukraine will buy Putin’s narrative because it suits their position and politics.
Putin is a cunning but evil actor. He will continue to employ ruses like this to pursue his cruel and unnecessary war against Ukraine and the Ukrainian people because he feels that he can still win it. We in the West must convince him otherwise."
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