He who controls Ukraine will control Europe

From the Obozrevatel:

""Whoever controls Ukraine controls Europe." Gritsak explained the old maxim in modern terms. Interview 

Orest Sokhar, November 20, 2025 

- I'd like to start with your thesis that "the fate of the world is being decided in Ukraine." In your opinion, what scenarios are on the table today? 

...I'll speak as a historian. There's a certain recurring pattern: whoever controls Ukraine controls Eastern Europe. And whoever controls Eastern Europe has a chance of becoming a European superpower, one that will dominate Europe and, accordingly, lay claim to the role of global superpower. We see the result of Bohdan Khmelnytsky's uprising, which began the decline of the Polish state and the rise of the Russian Empire. Essentially, the seizure of Ukraine paved the way for the transformation of the Russian Empire into a European state. 

Whoever controls Ukraine can have great ambitions. As someone said (I don't remember who), with Ukraine, Russia is the United States, and without Ukraine, it's Canada. Europe will understand this pattern. The second question is what it will do, because understanding and action are, you know, not the same thing. And here it's crucial whether Europe understands that Ukraine now represents an opportunity for Europe, that it is Ukraine that currently underpins Europe's security. This means that Europe must integrate Ukraine very quickly and must provide it with more intensive support.

If Europe has been a political and economic entity until now, it must now become a security space. And this cannot happen without Ukraine. Therefore, I say: the fate of Europe is now being decided in Ukraine. Europe can become a community capable of defending itself. Without resolving the issue of security, all other issues—political or economic—are of little use...  

- You once said that Russian history is an endless cycle of madness punctuated by brief intervals of clarity. What makes this crazy state so resilient?

I was quoting Dmitry Chizhevsky. The roots of this madness lie in autocracy. Autocracy isn't just a dirty word, it's a political system where the leader is accountable to no one. He concentrates his power single-handedly and can do whatever he pleases: send people to war, seize foreign territories. It makes no difference whether it's the Tsar of Moscow, the Russian Emperor, the General Secretary of the Communist Party of the USSR, or the President. If you remember, Aristotle in his "Politics" said that this is the worst type of monarchy and that tyrants should be killed, saying it even brings honor. Russia has never been able to modernize itself politically, although it tried several times—both in the 19th century and during Gorbachev's time—but it never succeeded. Whatever they did, as Chernomyrdin said, "they wanted the best, but it turned out as usual."..."