Any concessions to Putin will backfire

 Anthony Halpin, Bloomberg:

"Talk of Ukraine Concessions May Embolden Putin

It’s cost Ukraine enormous effort and a huge toll to resist Russia’s invading army for what’s fast approaching 1,000 days.

Little wonder, then, that some of Kyiv’s allies detect a greater readiness to adopt a more flexible approach to end the war... The US is consumed by next month’s presidential election whose outcome could determine future aid for Ukraine’s defense. Some European allies are beginning to flag in their backing for Kyiv in a war that shows no sign of ending.

While specific concessions haven’t been mentioned, there’s a lot of chatter about Ukraine potentially gaining strong security guarantees in return for accepting it can’t oust Russian forces from occupied territories for now.

This could even extend to NATO membership, with some pointing to West Germany’s experience during the Cold War division with East Germany. Others don’t want to go that far, and the US has been notably non-committal.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, gives no indication he’s interested in coming to the negotiating table. Talk of concessions is likely only to embolden the Kremlin in its belief that Russia can outlast the West in Ukraine.

Putin, after all, still occupies parts of neighboring Georgia seized in a 2008 war at little cost to Russia. He annexed Crimea and ignited fighting in eastern Ukraine in 2014, with only a muted response from the US and Europe.

For all the war-gaming on ending the present conflict, the fundamental question for Ukraine’s allies is whether they continue to let Putin gain from military aggression and at what future cost to them."