From the Institute for the Study of War:
"Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 17, 2025
...Russian President Vladimir Putin’s insistence that any peace agreement must address Russia’s perceived “root causes” of the war will make it difficult to reach a peace agreement as rapidly as Trump desires, given the complexity of the “root causes.” Putin reiterated his ongoing demand that any peace agreement must eliminate the “root causes” of the war during the joint press conference at the Alaska summit on August 15.[21]... Marco Rubio responded to a question regarding Putin’s demands at the Alaska summit during an interview with Face the Nation on August 17, stating that Putin’s demands to address the alleged “root causes” allude to long historical complaints that the Kremlin has repeatedly invoked.[25] Rubio stated that the United States is not going to focus on the “root causes” but rather on halting the fighting.
Russia’s “root causes” extend beyond Ukraine, and eliminating them would require substantial negotiations with NATO. Russian officials have defined one of the “root causes” of the war as NATO’s alleged violation of commitments not to expand into eastern Europe and along Russia’s borders in the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s.[26] Russia issued a broad set of ultimatums to the United States in December 2021 demanding that NATO commit to not accepting Ukraine or any other countries as new members; not deploy any military forces to states that became NATO members after May 1997; refrain from military activity in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia; and refrain from deploying intermediate-range missiles within range of Russian territory.[27]... Russia’s demands about the “root causes” are demands for massive NATO concessions that would jeopardize NATO’s integrity and European and US security more broadly.
Putin’s offer of a Russian law forbidding a future invasion of Ukraine is not credible because Russia has already twice broken previous binding international commitments not to invade and because Putin has shown that he can freely change Russian law as he desires. US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff stated on August 17 that Putin agreed during the Alaska summit that Russia would “legislatively enshrine” promises that Russia would not invade any other territory in Ukraine or elsewhere in Europe – likely referring to the creation of new Russian legislation or amendments to the Russian Constitution.[28] Putin has extensively disregarded and amended the Russian Constitution to support his political objectives, as evidenced by the Kremlin’s manipulation of the 2020 vote for a constitutional amendment to allow Putin to run for president again in 2024 and potentially remain in power until 2036.[29] Putin’s two invasions of Ukraine also broke Russia’s obligations under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum to respect the independence and sovereignty of Ukraine within Ukraine’s borders at the time.[30] Russia has continually violated international agreements prohibiting aggression against Ukraine, including the Minsk agreements.[31] Putin’s promise to codify Russian promises against future aggression into Russian legislation or the Russian Constitution is neither credible nor a concession, and there is no evidence to suggest that Putin would abide by any such law forbidding a renewed invasion of Ukraine after concluding a peace agreement.
The details about Ukrainian security guarantees to which Putin may have agreed remain unclear at this time, but the Kremlin may be attempting to resurrect its demands about security guarantors from April 2022 that would have neutered such guarantees. Axios stated on August 16 that sources briefed on Trump’s call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders after the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska stated that Putin said he was willing to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine and mentioned the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as one of the possible guarantors.[32] Witkoff stated on August 17 that Trump and Putin came to an agreement that the United States and Europe could “effectively offer Article 5-like language” as a security guarantee for Ukraine against future renewed Russian aggression – referring to NATO’s collective defense clause.[33] Putin’s reported suggestion that the PRC could be a security guarantor mirrors Russia’s proposed peace settlement in Istanbul in April 2022. The April 2022 proposed treaty listed the PRC, several Western states, and Russia as the security guarantors for Ukraine.[34] Russia demanded in the proposal that guarantor states provide Ukraine with aid in the event of a future attack only after all guarantor states had agreed to such a decision. The PRC is a close Russian ally that has significantly helped the Russian war effort and defense industrial base (DIB), and the PRC would not be a neutral guarantor.[35] Russia’s involvement in the guarantee would make it meaningless. The parameters of the security guarantees for Ukraine that Putin is reportedly willing to accept are unclear. Any future peace settlement that includes stipulations similar to the demands that Russia made in April 2022 requiring unity among guarantor states would enable the PRC (or Russia, if Russia is one of them) to veto any decisions to help Ukraine in the event of another Russian invasion..."
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