ISW: Trump's deal will fund and protract Russia's war in Ukraine

From the Institute for the Study of War:

"Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 9, 2026

October 9 to waive sanctions on Russian diesel to increase diesel supply to the United States’ and global markets — a decision which will fund Russia’s war effort and protract Russia’s war in Ukraine.[1] Trump stated that Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 tons of diesel to the United States’ and global markets, another 500,000 tons in November 2026, and one million tons “immediately thereafter” and noted that Russian oil refineries can supply another three million tons of diesel “in a short time” depending on their conditions. The US Treasury Department issued a temporary general license, at Trump‘s direction, to allow Russian diesel supply to the global market.[2] Russian exports accounted for only 9.5 percent of the global diesel export supply in 2025, and the Russian Federation temporarily banned diesel exports on July 8, 2026 as Ukraine intensified its long-range strike campaigns against Russia’s oil refining capacity and intermediate-range campaign against Russian logistics, including the deliveries of fuel to occupied Ukraine and the frontline.[3] The US’ decision to allow Russia to supply diesel to the global markets, including to the United States, will support the Kremlin’s efforts to stonewall US efforts to end the war, as the profits from diesel exports will enable Russia to continue funding its war in Ukraine. The US decision to grant Russia a waiver to export diesel also represents a unilateral US concession in its negotiation posture with Russia, when Russia has offered the US no concessions in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine."