From the Institute for the Study of War:
"Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 16, 2025
Medinsky highlighted that Russia is prepared to continue its war in Ukraine for years to come. Medinsky claimed that those "who do not know history" say that there should be a ceasefire first, then negotiations to achieve peace.[7] Medinsky claimed that war and negotiations should be conducted simultaneously, and Carroll reported that Medinsky stated that Russia is "ready to fight for a year, two, three – however long it takes."[8] Medinsky reportedly referenced the Great Northern War (1700-1721) when asking "how long [is Ukraine] ready to fight?" and claimed that "Russia is prepared to fight forever."[9] Russia state media confirmed that Medinsky spoke about the 18th-century war with Sweden during the meeting.[10]
Ukrainian diplomatic sources told various Western and Ukrainian outlets that the Russian delegation made "unrealistic" and "unacceptable" demands that went "far beyond" any demands Russia has previously discussed.[11] The delegation reportedly repeated the Kremlin's demand that Ukrainian forces withdraw from the entirety of the illegally annexed Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts before the start of a ceasefire. The Economist foreign correspondent Oliver Carroll reported that a source stated that the Russian delegation additionally threatened to seize Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts, and Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Deputy Oleksiy Goncharenko similarly reported that the Russian delegation threatened to annex Sumy Oblast in order to create a "security zone."[12]
The Kremlin has repeatedly publicly demanded that Ukraine cede all of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts – even the territory that Russian forces currently do not occupy – but had not formally demanded that Ukraine cede all of Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts before the May 16 Istanbul meeting.[13] Russian officials have informally claimed all of Kharkiv Oblast as part of Russia and launched offensive operations to create buffer zones in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts in May 2024 and March 2025, respectively, that are likely part of Russian territorial expansion efforts, however. Kharkiv Oblast occupation governor Vitaly Ganchev claimed in early February 2025 that Kharkiv Oblast is "strategically" and politically significant for Russia and that he was "certain" that Russian forces would seize all of Kharkiv Oblast because Russia needed a "sanitary zone" to protect itself from Ukrainian shelling.[14] Ganchev further claimed that Kharkiv Oblast would have held a "referendum" to become the "fifth oblast to join Russia" in September 2022 had it not been for the successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast at that time. Russian forces launched attacks across the Sumy-Kursk Oblast border in April 2025 to create a buffer zone and possibly press further toward Sumy City in order to expand Russian territorial demands in Ukraine.[15] Russian forces similarly launched offensive operations in May 2024 to create a buffer zone in northern Kharkiv Oblast, and Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev stated at that time that Russia's envisioned "buffer zone" should encompass all of Ukraine, suggesting that the Kremlin's concept of the buffer zone is a thinly veiled justification for Russia's intent to subsume larger portions of Ukraine.[16]
Russian officials have long been informally laying claim to additional territories in Ukraine beyond Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts. Russian officials, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, have consistently claimed that "Novorossiya" – an invented region of Ukraine that Kremlin officials have claimed includes all southern and eastern Ukraine – is an "integral" part of Russia and that Odesa City is a "Russian" city."[17] Novorossiya geographically encompasses Kharkiv Oblast. Kherson Oblast occupation head Vladimir Saldo stated in April 2025 that the "return" of the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River to Russia is "fundamentally important" and an "absolute priority."[18] Saldo called for Russia to completely control the areas of the Dnipro River that pass through Kherson, Zaporizhia, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts – a call for Russia to not only gain control over parts of Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts that Russian forces do not currently occupy but to control parts of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, which Russia has not formally claimed or illegally annexed. The Kremlin may increasingly adopt this pattern of informally discussing additional Russian territorial claims and then formally introducing these claims as demands in peace negotiations in the future.
ISW has consistently assessed that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not compromise in peace negotiations unless Ukraine and the West inflict significant battlefield and economic losses on Russia and force Putin to rethink his theory of victory. Putin articulated his theory of victory for his war in Ukraine in June 2024, which posits that Russia will be able to win a war of attrition against Ukraine by continuing gradual, creeping advances indefinitely and preventing Ukraine from conducting successful, operationally significant counteroffensive operations, assuming Russia’s war effort outlasts Western support for Ukraine.[19]..."
[7] https://ria dot ru/20250516/medinskiy-2017467577.html
[8] https://x.com/olliecarroll/status/1923357966880604303
[9] https://x.com/olliecarroll/status/1923357966880604303; https://x.com/olliecarroll/status/1923379942579908862; https://x.com/RobynDixon__/status/1923395655151550606
[10] https://smotrim dot ru/video/2973430?utm_source=internal&utm_medium=serp&utm_campaign=serp
[11] https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-latest-peace-talks-zelenskyy-putin-istanbul-crimea-baltic-nato-jet-clarke-frontline-turkey-erdogan-12541713?postid=9592110#liveblog-body; https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/may/16/ukraine-russia-zelenskyy-putin-war-us-turkey-talks-istanbul-live-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-68272b758f088b79656ba3cf#block-68272b758f088b79656ba3cf; https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1923354285472952826; https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/05/16/russia-ukraine-turkey-peace-talks/1ecf08ea-322d-11f0-8498-1f8214bba2d2_story.html' https://x.com/olliecarroll/status/1923371616227979459; https://www.axios.com/2025/05/16/russia-ukraine-ceasefire-talks-turkey
[12] https://x.com/olliecarroll/status/1923371616227979459; https://t.me/oleksiihoncharenko/47144
[13] https://isw.pub/UkrWar043025; https://isw.pub/UkrWar042825; https://isw.pub/UkrWar042425; https://isw.pub/UkrWar042225; https://isw.pub/UkrWar041525; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-14-2024; https://isw.pub/UkrWar121924
[14] https://isw.pub/UkrWar020425
[15] https://isw.pub/UkrWar040925
[16] https://isw.pub/UkrWar051024; https://isw.pub/UkrWar051324; https://isw.pub/UkrWar051424; https://isw.pub/UkrWar051724; https://isw.pub/UkrWar051824 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar031325
[17] https://isw.pub/UkrWar05022025 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar042925 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar042325 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar042225 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar04172025 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar041525
[18] https://isw.pub/UkrWar042125
[19] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2024; http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/74234
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