Why Trump's plan was bad for Ukraine, Europe and humanity

From the Atlantic:

"Heads, Ukraine Loses. Tails, Russia Wins

Trump is giving Putin what he wants and pushing Zelensky to accept it

by Phillips Payson O'Brien 

April 23, 2025

The Trump administration is presenting Ukraine with a choice between two bad options: Either Kyiv must accept an American peace plan that rewards Russia for invading Ukrainian territory, or the United States will abandon its efforts to broker an end to the war. 

“We’ve issued a very explicit proposal to both the Russians and the Ukrainians, and it’s time for them to either say yes or for the United States to walk away from this process,” Vice President J. D. Vance said during a stop in India. On Truth Social, President Donald Trump insinuated that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has no choice but to accept U.S. terms. “The man with ‘no cards to play’ should now, finally, GET IT DONE,” Trump declared.

In effect, the United States is abandoning the Ukrainians regardless of which option Zelensky chooses. Trump’s one-sided plan gives Russian President Vladimir Putin everything he wants while giving Ukraine nothing of substance. First, Russia gets to keep all the land that it has seized through its invasions of Ukraine stretching back to 2014. Ukraine will have to recognize Russian control over Crimea—in violation of specific tenets of the Ukrainian constitution. In making the latter demand, Trump is formally asking a democratic country, one that very much wanted to be a U.S. ally, to hand over to a bloodthirsty dictator its claim to some of its most strategically important territory. This would be like another nation asking the United States to hand over Hawaii to China.

Such a move would give the Russian invasion of Ukraine the imprimatur of legitimacy. It would destroy the post-1945 European order and hollow out the charter of the United Nations—which helped stabilize national borders and establish the norm that nations cannot expand through military aggression. Now every state on Russia’s border would have to live in a world in which Moscow has been empowered to try to seize its neighbors’ territory if it wants.

The Trump plan helps Russia in many other ways. Economic sanctions that were first imposed in 2014 and have been greatly strengthened since 2022 are to be fully relaxed. This means that seized Russian assets would be returned to Russia, and Russia’s war economy could then be heavily supported by China and perhaps even American companies. A cease-fire under these terms would position Russia to start rebuilding its military after the horrific losses of the Ukraine war.

So Russia keeps the territory, gets all its money back, and gets access to world markets to rebuild its economy. What does Ukraine get? Well, nothing. The agreement would rule out Ukrainian membership in NATO and put no other security guarantees in place. This alone will help hobble Ukraine in its attempts to rebuild from the war. Who is going to invest in the country if it has no formal allies?

Washington certainly has no obligations to Ukraine under the Trump plan. There are no new pledges of U.S. aid or any requirements that the U.S. enforce the cease-fire. The Trump administration has argued that a proposed minerals deal giving the United States a stake in Ukrainian natural resources would be a de facto security guarantee, but business ties are no substitute for a treaty.

If Ukraine says no to Trump’s plan, the U.S. can simply end the talks, go home, and remove sanctions on Russia. If Ukraine says yes to Trump’s deal, that’s even better for Putin. Trump can claim to be a peacemaker knowing that he has put the dictator he admires in the strongest possible strategic position.

The Ukrainians clearly want to reject this plan. Zelensky has already balked at the idea of legally handing over Crimea to a country that is now killing his people and wants to end Ukraine’s existence. His defiance has caused Trump to lash out at the Ukrainians for defying his wishes.

The reaction of European states has been more muted. President Emmanuel Macron of France has spoken of the importance of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, but no major leader has so far come out in direct opposition to Trump’s plan. Breaking with the United States still seems just too difficult for European leaders, who have long been conditioned to meekness and failure in matters of global security.

But without the strong backing of European countries, Ukrainians might feel forced to accept this terrible deal. They will not want to, because they will be devastated by it. But unless Europe steps up and confronts a dictator-loving U.S. president, Ukraine might have to give in to Trump and Putin.

Heads, Ukraine loses. Tails, Russia wins."

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Happily, Putin wasn't satisfied with the plan - he wanted more - so the plan went to oblivion.