Tuesday, December 30, 2025

Germany cooperated with Putin's army AFTER his aggression in Georgia

From TVP World:

"Berlin ‘planned to train Russian forces’ before Putin’s Crimea grab

11.10.2025

Germany was engaged in major plans to help train and modernize the Russian army until Moscow annexed Crimea in 2014, German weekly Der Spiegel has reported.

Among the plans were the creation of training centers in Russia as part of a billion-euro deal, the weekly wrote on Friday. 

According to the paper, the plans were hatched following the 2008 Russia-Georgia war, which exposed the poor state of Russia’s military.  

Following the campaign, President Vladimir Putin ordered an overhaul of Russia’s armed forces to bring them into the 21st century. And his partner of choice was Germany. 

Berlin under Chancellor Angela Merkel was more than enthusiastic about the prospect and put pressure on Germany’s defense sector to cooperate with Moscow.

One of the key plans was the creation of eight training centers across Russia, featuring the latest state-of-the art laser technology to simulate modern combat. The industrial partner in the enterprise was to be German defense giant Rheinmetall. 

Berlin justified the plans in terms of realpolitik. "We have a security policy interest in a modern, well-led Russian army," said then-defense minister Thomas de Maizière in 2011.

The German government’s rationale was that military cooperation engenders trust, and trust secures peace, according to Der Spiegel. The federal government also hoped to learn more about Russia’s military vulnerabilities through the arrangements.

Officers and officials were exchanged at the highest levels, plans were forged for a billion-euro deal between Rheinmetall and Russia’s defense ministry, and military drills were foreseen inside Russia, by NATO’s eastern flank. 

These exercises sent alarm bells ringing in Poland, Finland, and the Baltic states, Der Spiegel wrote, as they raised the specter of the 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop pact that led to World War II. 

The rest of NATO did not share Germany’s good faith in Moscow, nor the conviction that cooperation was the road to peace and security in Europe. 

But the plans continued, including a €135 million contract for Rheinmetall to build the first training complex, in Russia’s Volga region. The first joint military exercises were planned for 2014.

But geopolitics took a different turn. Even before Russia’s annexation that year of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula, a Russian army general, Valery Gerasimov, gave a notorious speech at the Academy of Military Sciences in which he said the rules of war had changed. 

The so-called Gerasimov Doctrine was that war does not need to be declared or even fought. The same objectives, he argued, could be achieved through the "widespread use of disinformation, political, economic, humanitarian, and other non-military measures."

The new reality was too real for Berlin’s realpolitik and the military pact with Moscow was shelved. Rheinmetall threatened legal action against its own government and main customer for lost contracts, but the parties eventually reached a settlement out of court. 

The equipment earmarked the Volga training center remains in storage by Rheinmetall and, after Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the company considered making it available to Ukraine free of charge, as an act of solidarity as well as a PR stunt, Der Spiegel reported.

The training center in Mulino, Volga, went ahead without Rheinmetall and in 2021 served as one of the venues for Russia’s last big ‘Zapad’ training maneuvers prior to its invasion of its western neighbor."

Open letter to the Russians: It will become only worse for you

Igal Levin in the Obozrevatel:

"Russians have been terrorizing Ukrainian civilians for a long time. They have nothing to "surprise" Ukrainians with

10.10.2025

The Russians, of course, are incredibly magical—it never ceases to amaze me how happy they are that they were able to shut down the water supply in Kyiv for a few hours, as if it were some kind of retaliation and some kind of success. 

Sirs, to impress, you have to hit harder (and many times harder) than before. Let me remind you that you've been attacking the energy infrastructure since 2022, and back then, since Ukraine was just learning to cope, you actually managed to cause partial blackouts a couple of times a day. Then there were rolling blackouts, and then in 2023, and then in 2024. You've been hitting hard for a long time, and you simply can't hit harder, so your attacks are no longer "impressive." 

It's like ISIS terrorists trying to impress someone today by beheading someone on camera, or Hamas trying to impress someone by launching a rocket into a city. None of this is impressive, because it's been going on for a long time, and these are well-established patterns of behavior. It's the same with you—you've been waging terror against peaceful Ukrainian citizens for years, and you have nothing to surprise these same Ukrainians with. 

Except perhaps once again admitting that you're banal terrorists when Ukrainian children die during your latest attack, like today: you, filthy pigs, killed a child in Zaporizhzhia. 

You've been fighting at the peak of your firepower for a long time, and if you're not bombing somewhere, it's not out of "humanity," but because you can't. And the terror bombings you've been waging for several years won't "impress" anyone. 

Ukraine, meanwhile, is expanding its capabilities and capabilities, and while in 2022 it could launch a couple of Tochka-U missiles at your border facilities, now it's causing blackouts, destroying arsenals, refineries, pipelines, and other strategic facilities. Your factories and workshops are burning, and target engagement ranges of 1,500–2,000 meters are becoming routine. This is truly impressive, it's inspiring, it's a true achievement, backed by considerable effort and resources. 

And you will have even more burning and ruin, because, as I have already noted, Ukraine is only increasing its capabilities and will continue to strike back - in response to your murderous terror of the civilian population, which you are waging due to your military impotence and blatant incompetence." 

America's withdrawal from Europe emboldened Putin

From the Dialog, Oct 9:

"Shvets explained why Putin has become bolder on the issue of war against NATO and how this is connected to the Pentagon leak

Yuriy Shvets reported that the US "pushed" Putin to take more active steps in the war against NATO.

Yuriy Shvets drew his viewers' attention to a curious fact that has received little media coverage, but could have prompted Putin to take more aggressive action against European countries. A Pentagon source reported in late summer that the United States intended to stop funding European security. Yuriy Shvets shared this information on his YouTube channel. 

"It turns out that at the end of August, Pentagon officials notified European allies (I haven't seen this information widely reported in the press) that the US would cut funding for key security programs aimed at containing Russia on NATO's eastern flank. You've probably heard the echoes. The discussion was about the Baltic states being the first to be cut. Apparently, the Kremlin interpreted this move as a green light for a dangerous war against NATO itself," the experienced intelligence officer reported.

Yuri Shvets then elaborated on what might have spurred Putin's resolve: "After that, as you know, it all started: Russian drones appeared in NATO airspace, then fighter jets flew in. Then the drones began flying deeper and deeper. They reached Denmark and hovered over Munich Airport, and the underlying reason was that some unknown Pentagon official announced that we were done. It's unlikely, of course, that the United States will save a lot of money by cutting off funding for security programs in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.""

***

I am sure that Trump's purpose in cutting these programs was not to sell money but to facilitate the takeover of Europe by his beloved Putin.  

Israeli expert: Putin orchestrated Oct 7, and achieved his goal

From the Dialog, Oct 9:

"Tamar explained how the "second proxy war" helped Putin prevent the war in Ukraine from ending

[Israeli expert] Grigory Tamar expressed the opinion that the attack on Israel on October 7 was part of Russia's war against Ukraine.

Putin needed the war in Israel to divide Western elites and shift attention from Ukraine to something else, according to Grigory Tamar. The worst part is that the Russian dictator achieved his goal. Grigory Tamar's interview with the Novini.LIVE channel can be viewed at YouTube. 

"When the aggression against Ukraine began, Western elites were practically unanimous. Everyone understood that Russia was the enemy, that Ukraine needed to be supported, and that Russian fascism needed to be countered. Putin inspired the October 7 attack against Israel, in part, to divide Western elites. Today, Western elites are disoriented and divided. A huge amount of effort is being expended on supposedly supporting the Palestinian people, because there's a 'humanitarian catastrophe' there. There's no humanitarian catastrophe there, no genocide, and no famine," the military historian expressed his understanding of the situation.

Grigory Tamar also noted: "Look what Putin achieved by instigating the October 7 attack. Western elites were divided, Israel was demonized, and today no one is unanimously talking about the need to help Ukraine. This has fallen off the agenda in the West, as everyone is now busy hating Israel. So Putin has achieved his goal in this regard.""  

Russian political scientist: Putin is insane, can't defeat Ukraine

From DonPress, Oct 9:

"Russian political scientist on Putin's war with NATO: "This man is simply insane." 

The Kremlin regime is trying to convince Russians that they are fighting against all of NATO in order to maintain the myth of a "victorious army," said Russian political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin. This was reported by OstroV, citing a YouTube video. 

"We've lost a million men, thousands of tanks, hundreds of aircraft, the Black Sea Fleet, which is afraid to leave Novorossiysk and has already left Sevastopol. And what about NATO's losses? Well, NATO hasn't arrived yet. Where are the regular NATO units? Where are the NATO planes with NATO pilots? None of that exists. Putin is at war with Ukraine. And he can't defeat it," he said. 

According to Oreshkin, if you critically evaluate everything Putin says, it becomes clear that "this man is simply insane.""

Why von der Leyen is constrantly attacked

From an interview of Ukrainian diplomat Roman Bessmertny to Roman Pryadun in the Obozrevatel, Oct 9:

"– Ursula von der Leyen is once again fending off attacks against her. This time, two votes of no confidence. It's been reported that she will ultimately survive, but it seems this pressure is becoming a trend. How dangerous is this? After all, Ursula von der Leyen is a very significant figure for Ukraine.

Yes, Ursula von der Leyen is truly a significant figure not only for Ukraine, but also for Germany and all of Europe. After all, most of the key decisions made by the European Union over the past five years, particularly in the areas of defense and security, were initiated by her in collaboration with NATO Secretary Generals, both the previous and the current one, Mark Rutte.

While relations between Stoltenberg and Ursula were traditionally tense, now, with the emergence of the triad—Ursula von der Leyen, the EU's top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte—a very strong team has emerged, capable of acting as a unified force. And it is precisely this effectiveness that irritates both left-wing populists and right-wing radicals. Because both camps were essentially nurtured and continue to be supported by the Russian Federation. 

Let me be frank: the far left in Britain, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), the left-wing populist movements of Southern Europe, and some of the far right in the North are projects created and supported by Gazprom funds. Some parties, like the Alternative for Germany (AfD), were simply bought out and politically organized according to the Russian model. And support for the far right in France is a whole other story.

Add to this Orbán, Fico, and Babiš – all of them, to varying degrees, are oriented toward Moscow. We've already forgotten what the Tsipras government brought Greece to – it, too, was brought to power with Russia's active support. The result: 90 billion euros in aid to save the country. The same is happening now in France: don't forget where Marine Le Pen and her former National Front came from. They are also a product of Russian influence.  

– So, having certain positions in the European Parliament, these far left and far right are now trying to remove von der Leyen as a central figure, because she is mortally dangerous for them?

Exactly. And here's why: a powerful circle of economists, security, and defense experts has gathered around her. They are the ones who created unique strategic documents—"European Competitiveness," "Europe Readiness 2030," and "The European Armament Plan." Many in the EU were shocked, because until recently, it was believed that the European Union was fundamentally incapable of developing such fundamental security concepts. But most importantly, both left-wing and right-wing populists are Eurosceptics. Some of them have a direct mission—to destroy the European Union from within...  

For the likes of Orbán, Fico, Nawrocký, and Babiš, this is a blow to their corrupt schemes. Any coordination, joint control, or transparency automatically eliminates their internal power flows and shady deals. That's why they're targeting the central figure – von der Leyen...

Unfortunately, Mr. Roman, I can't even evaluate Trump's words positively. And, in fact, the phrase you quoted—"I want to see what the Ukrainians will do with the Tomahawk"—hints at the heart of the matter: the situation is being deliberately drawn out... All of this only strengthens my doubts about Trump's ability to make a final decision. Because he sees that even Ukraine's drone strikes are causing colossal damage to Russia. For him, this is an advantage for one side, meaning an imbalance, which he doesn't want to allow. Trump is balancing, holding the situation together, wrapped in the burqa of a "mediator," although in reality, neither he nor the US are any longer convincing in this mediation.

– So, we shouldn’t expect Putin to suddenly change his mind, slow down the escalation, and agree to at least some “negotiations about negotiations”?

Absolutely. We must make it clear: even if backed into a corner, Putin will not engage in dialogue. For him, negotiations or a ceasefire would mean political and physical death. And he understands this perfectly well.  

The problem is that they don't understand this in Washington. Incidentally, neither do some of the European elite. They still hope: when Russia loses another two or five hundred thousand on the front, when the economy collapses, when the social security fund disappears, then Putin will "get it." This is a profound misunderstanding of the very essence of Russian statehood. They don't understand that Putin is based not on logic, but on the cult of war. And as long as the war continues, this entire kleptocratic clique will hold on. Therefore, either a crushing blow will be dealt that will incinerate this system—and then we can talk about any changes—or we will face endless war." 

Nord Stream case: bravo to Poland, shame on Italy

Two reports from Deutsche Welle:

"Nord Stream: Poland blocks extradition of suspect to Germany

Saim Dušan Inayatullah with dpa, Reuters, 

A Polish court on Friday declined to extradite to Germany a Ukrainian suspected of involvement in sabotaging the Nord Stream gas pipelines.

The Warsaw District Court also ordered his immediate release. The decision may be subject to appeal.

A series of underwater explosions damaged the Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022, seven months after Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine.

"The Polish court does not have any evidence in this case, as the German side only sent very general information," judge Dariusz Lubowski was cited by Poland's PAP news agency as saying.

The judge also argued that the alleged sabotage constituted a "military operation" that was "not illegal." He argued that the suspect allegedly acted on behalf of Kyiv, meaning "only the Ukrainian state can bear responsibility for this act."

He also said that Germany did not have jurisdiction over the case as it occurred in international waters.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk hailed the decision in a post on X.

"Polish court denied extradition to Germany of a Ukrainian national suspected of blowing up North Stream 2 and released him from custody. And rightly so," Tusk said.

"The case is closed."

The man's defense lawyer, Tymoteusz Paprocki, told journalists in Warsaw that the ruling sent a "signal to Germany" and showed that the law should not be "instrumentalized for the sake of greater interests."...

Before the ruling, his defense lawyer had said that his client planned to plead not guilty if brought to trial.

He questioned whether the destruction of Russian property by Ukrainians could be considered a criminal matter in light of Moscow's invasion of its neighbor...

Earlier this month, Prime Minister Donald Tusk argued against handing over the suspect, suggesting it was not in Poland's national interest.

"The problem with North Stream 2 is not that it was blown up. The problem is that it was built," Tusk said in a post on X..."

***

"Italy approves Nord Stream suspect's Germany extradition

Mark Hallam with dpa, Reuters, 

Italy's highest court has upheld a lower court verdict approving the extradition of the suspected ringleader of the Nord Stream gas pipeline sabotage to Germany. The Ukrainian national's lawyer announced the news

Italy's Supreme Court of Cassation upheld a lower court verdict that a Ukrainian national wanted in Germany on suspicion of sabotaging the Nord Stream gas pipelines can be extradited. 

The suspect's lawyer announced the decision on Wednesday evening. 

The 49-year-old, identified as Serhiy K., has been in pre-trial detention since the summer and his lawyer said on October 31 that he had started a hunger strike in protest. 

He's wanted in Germany on suspicion of helping to organize and plan the sabotage, on charges of causing an explosion and of sabotage targeting key infrastructure. The defendant denies the charges.

The man is likely to be handed over to German police in Italy and then flown to Germany..."

For Russia, Donetsk region is just gateway

From AP:

"Ukraine’s Donetsk region seen as Russia’s gateway, not the ultimate prize in war

Kremlin delights in the damage Russian drones inflict on Europe

From the Dialog, Oct 6:

"Europe under hybrid attack: Putin continues to launch drones in the EU after pledging "no more" 

Russian drones continued to terrorize Europe after Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's speech at Valdai and his promises not to do so again.

Several European airports suspended operations again due to "unknown" drones appearing in German and Norwegian airspace. This occurred just days after Russian dictator Vladimir Putin declared at the Valdai Conference that he would "no longer" send drones to Europe...

Europe is reluctant to blame Moscow for what's happening, not wanting to escalate the situation, but Russia's involvement is obvious...

CNN notes: "Putin, without firing a single shot, managed to convey the essence of the war in Ukraine to millions of Europeans." The article emphasizes that ambiguity and the lack of clear evidence are classic signs of hybrid attacks.

The Kremlin, for its part, denies all accusations. Putin's press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, called the situation "strange," but added, "There are no grounds to blame Russia for this."  

Putin himself, at the Valdai Club plenary session on Thursday, said with a smirk, "We will no longer send drones to France, or Denmark... or Copenhagen... Where else can they fly?"  

Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, for his part, openly acknowledged Russia's involvement in the incidents and explained the reasons. "The main thing is for narrow-minded Europeans to experience firsthand the danger of war, so that they fear and tremble, like dumb animals in a herd being driven to the slaughterhouse," he said." 

For Merkel, Eastern Europe is not "real" Europe and can be fed to Russia

From Deutsche Welle / Fakti:

"Merkel and her failed policy towards Russia

In light of such a policy, it seems logical that at the NATO summit in Bucharest in 2008, Merkel blocked the accession of Georgia and Ukraine to the Alliance - in alliance with former French President Nicolas Sarkozy. The appeasement of Russia according to Angela Merkel's model did not work. The former German Chancellor stubbornly refuses to admit the failure of her policy towards Putin

Konstantin Eggert, Oct 9, 2025 05:00

Angela Merkel probably did not intend to cause a scandal. In an interview with the left-wing Hungarian portal Partizàn, the former German Chancellor was simply promoting her memoirs. She decided to talk about her attempts to prevent a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, but dropped a media bombshell.

Merkel's interview and the delight of Z-bloggers

"In June 2021, I felt that Putin no longer took the Minsk agreements seriously, and that is why I wanted to create a new format in which we could talk directly with Putin on behalf of the European Union (EU)," Merkel said in the interview. However, the plan failed. "Some did not support it. First of all, these were the Baltic countries, but Poland was also against it. In any case, the new format (of negotiations with Russia – ed. note) did not materialize. I left my post and then Putin's aggression began," summarizes the former German Chancellor.

And although "after that" does not necessarily mean "as a result", it was this logical chain that was perceived by many as shifting some of the responsibility for the Russian invasion...

In the Baltic capitals and Warsaw, Merkel's words caused the expected storm of indignation. After all, it was the Lithuanians and Poles who, since the Russian attack on Georgia in 2008, had been warning that Russia would not stop there.

Russian propaganda broadcasts and Z-channels on Telegram also exploded, but with joy. According to them, the former head of government of the most populous country in the EU had sided with them and confirmed that the "patented Russophobes" from the Baltic states and Poland were to blame for the continent's current problems. It was they who had hindered the "true Europeans" to establish relations with the great eastern neighbor, to hand over to "us", that is, to Russia, control over all these "Ukrainians" and "Moldovan" and to receive in return cheap gas and a large market for European industrial production.

What I understood when I had dinner with Merkel

In the distant summer of 2008, I had the opportunity to talk to Merkel personally during an informal and rather long dinner. Without going into details about the private conversation, I will share my main impression: Angela Merkel has consciously and long ago decided to follow a line of de facto appeasement of the Putin regime.

Unlike her predecessor Gerhard Schröder, whom the Kremlin easily brought under control with flattery and the post in "Nord Stream", Merkel has hardly received any personal benefit from this policy. The former Chancellor believed and apparently still believes that she acted in the interests of Germany and that same "real" Europe, which begins west of the border between Poland and the Federal Republic of Germany.

The calculations were as follows: Russia may not become and most likely will not become a democracy, but the purely material benefits of dependence on oil and gas will be so significant for it that the Kremlin will necessarily choose "peace and stability". And if this requires (unofficially, of course) agreement with Moscow's political dominance in the so-called "post-Soviet space", then this would generally be an acceptable price.

The interview with Merkel – a gift for Putin, AfD and the communists

In light of such a policy, it seems logical that at the NATO summit in Bucharest in 2008, Merkel blocked the accession of Georgia and Ukraine to the Alliance - in alliance with former French President Nicolas Sarkozy. It was this decision that became a real, not a fictional, root cause of Russian aggression against both countries.

Merkel's interview for the Hungarian portal is a gift not only for Russian propaganda, but also for the European far right and far left. Both - although for different reasons - hate Merkel. For them, she is a symbol of – – – – globalism, – – – the dictates of the EU, – – – German revanchism, – – the policy of open borders, – everyone will find something to criticize her for. But the French and Czech communists, Fico, Orban and the "Alternative for Germany" (AfD) will now say: "If Merkel also thinks that not only Putin is to blame for the war, then it turns out that we are right". Therefore, support for Ukraine must be stopped and peace must be negotiated at all costs (i.e. at the expense of the same Ukraine).

Joseph Beck, who served as Poland's foreign minister in the 1930s, said the following: "Peace, like almost everything in life, has a price - high, but completely determinable". Peace according to Merkel's model did not come true. It is a pity that she herself - at least for now - is not ready to admit it. Ukraine is paying the price for her failed policy today."

Merkel ripped after blaming Baltic countries and Poland for Putin's aggression

From LRT:

"‘Missed opportunity to be quiet’: Merkel's interview sparks backlash in Lithuania

LRT.lt 2025.10.07

Baltic officials responded in uproar over what they saw as Angela Merkel, the former German leader, blaming the three countries and Poland for blocking Europe’s contacts with the Kremlin that partly led to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

"In June 2021, I felt that Putin was no longer taking the Minsk Agreement seriously," she said in reference to the failed peace talks that froze the conflict between Kyiv and Russian-led separatists in the country’s east.

Merkel said that the refusal by the Baltic states and Poland to permit direct talks with the Kremlin following the 2014 aggression against Ukraine led, in part, to Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

"That's why I wanted a new format where we could speak directly with Putin as the European Union," she said, adding that "not everyone supported this, above all the Baltic states, but Poland was also against it". They were "afraid", she said, that there would be no collective agreement among EU states on how to tackle Russia.

​The interview with the Hungarian media outlet, Partizan, sparked backlash in the Baltic states and Poland.

Linas Linkevicius, the Lithuanian foreign minister at the time, said Merkel "missed an opportunity to be quiet".

In a post on Facebook, the current ambassador to Sweden said "there are certain types of people – and politicians are also people – who are never wrong”, adding that Merkel’s opposition to granting a NATO membership plan to Georgia and Ukraine in 2008 enabled the Kremlin’s aggression.

“Russia felt free to act as if it had been given permission to do whatever it wanted in its own ‘backyard’. It was one of many wake-up calls that the West simply ignored,” he said.

“The chancellor’s responsibility for those historical mistakes has not diminished in the slightest – especially when, recklessly and without justification, she blames those who at least tried to stop those errors,” said Linkevičius.

“Many who remember it all are still alive,” he added.

According to Gabrielius Landsbergis, Lithuania’s former foreign minister, Merkel’s remarks were “a case of inverted logic”, when someone attempts to “find someone else to blame” for their mistakes.

Drawing on his experience of dealing with the former German chancellor, Landsbergis recalled when Lithuania was plunged into a migration crisis after the Minsk regime channeled thousands of migrants toward the Baltics and Poland in response to EU sanctions.

At the time, Lithuania requested greater EU funding and sanctions against Belarus. However, Merkel decided to negotiate directly with the authoritarian Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, behind Lithuania’s back, Landsbergis said.

“Without informing us, she spoke with Lukashenko and began, on her own initiative, to form some kind of agreement,” the former foreign minister said. “I remember saying that if Lithuania is under attack, then perhaps such contacts should first be coordinated with us? But it didn’t seem to make any impression on her.”

According to Landsbergis, Merkel greatly overestimated her influence over Putin.

“The appeasement strategy didn’t work in 1938, and it doesn’t work now,” he said, drawing a parallel with the Second World War..."

*** 

Landsbergis also wrote in X: "Say what you want about Merkel's legacy, at least she finally admitted whose side she was on."

ISW: Russia dangles carrots in front of the Americans to make them betray Ukraine

From the Institute for the Study of War:

"Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 5, 2025

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues attempts to deter the US from sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine by linking improvements in the US-Russian bilateral relationship to concessions from the United States on the war in Ukraine. Putin claimed in an interview published on October 5 that US provisions of Tomahawk missiles would “lead to the destruction” of the “emerging positive trend” in US-Russian relations – linking the prospect of improved US-Russian relations with limits on US support for Ukraine.[1] Putin is continuing to dangle the prospect of incentives that are unrelated to the war in Ukraine to extract concessions from the United States about the war in Ukraine. ISW continues to assess that Putin has been trying to facilitate US-Russian rapprochement, including by pressuring the Trump administration to engage in arms control talks, to secure Russia’s desired demands in Ukraine.[2] 

Putin has been promoting various rhetorical lines to try to deter the Trump administration from providing Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles. Putin threateningly warned the United States against selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine on October 2, claiming that American military personnel would have to directly participate in Ukrainian Tomahawk strikes.[3] Putin also claimed that such strikes would mark a “new stage of escalation” but would not change the battlefield situation. Putin made similar arguments when the United States was considering sending Ukraine ATACMS missiles, F-16 jets, and Abrams tanks. Putin appears to be trying different approaches – from threatening worsening bilateral relations to downplaying the missiles’ usefulness – to influence US decision-making. 

The Kremlin is trying to prevent the United States from providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine in order to retain the sanctuary that Russia enjoys in its rear. Ukrainian forces are able to conduct long-range drone strikes against a significant portion of Russia’s rear, but the payloads on these drones are limited and not suitable to destroy specialized objects. Ukraine’s ability to launch missile strikes deep into Russia’s rear with larger payloads would allow Ukraine to significantly damage – if not destroy – key military assets in Russia, such as the Shahed drone factory in Yelabuga, Republic of Tatarstan, or the Engels-2 Air Base in Saratov Oblast from which Russia sorties strategic bombers that fire air-launch cruise missiles at Ukraine. Russia has been able to significantly scale up its Shahed drone production by expanding the factory in Yelabuga, allowing Russia to launch increasingly large and more frequent long-range drone strikes against Ukraine. Russia’s nightly strike packages in September 2025 featured an average of 187 long-range drones (many of which are Shahed-type drones) per night, whereas similar strike packages in January 2025 only featured an average of 83 drones, for example. Russia notably started launching overnight strike packages that included over 500 drones more frequently in September 2025. ISW assesses that there are at least 1,945 Russian military objects within range of the 2,500-kilometer variant Tomahawk and at least 1,655 within range of the 1,600-kilometer variant. Ukraine likely can significantly degrade Russia’s frontline battlefield performance by targeting a vulnerable subset of rear support areas that sustain and support Russia’s frontline operations.[4] Ukraine has reportedly launched mass production of its new, domestically produced FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile with a 3,000-kilometer range and 1,150-kilogram warhead, but the system remains unproven, and Ukraine will need time to scale up production.[5]"

China helps Russia strike targets in Ukraine

From Reuters / Yahoo!News:

"China provides intelligence to Russia on Ukraine targets, Ukrainian intelligence says

Reuters

China is providing intelligence to Russia to enable Moscow to better launch missile strikes inside Ukraine, a senior Ukrainian intelligence official was quoted as saying on Saturday.

Oleh Alexandrov, an official with Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Agency, told the state Ukrinform news agency, that China was passing on satellite intelligence on targets, including those benefiting from foreign investment.

"There is evidence of a high level of cooperation between Russia and China in conducting satellite reconnaissance of the territory of Ukraine in order to identify and further explore strategic objects for targeting," Alexandrov told Ukrinform.

"As we have seen in recent months, these sites may belong to foreign investors."

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and regional officials said a Russian missile attack in August struck a U.S.-owned appliance factory in the western Zakarpattia region, injuring 15 people.

Zelenskiy said in April that China was supplying weapons and gunpowder to Russia. He also said that his government had intelligence that China was producing weapons on Russian territory.

(Reporting by Ron Popeski; Editing by Alistair Bell)"

Good life creates trade union obsession with Gaza

From the Obozrevatel:

"When social security is too good, EU trade unions start worrying about Gaza's rights

Olexander Kirsch, October 5, 2025 

Trade unions and similar organizations of professional parasites in civilized European countries need to act urgently, otherwise they will all soon be left without work, because social standards in the EU are already maintained at a very high level.

So this entire gang switches over to either protecting the environment and workers from each other, or to something international—using, for example, ancient human anti-Semitism, which can now be conveniently and modernly called the defense of the Palestinians of Gaza. In reality, all calls for the rights of Palestinian thugs (and their loyal, innocent voters) are translated the same way in all languages: THE LEFT WANT TO EAT!  

They don't care about the details—who in faraway Palestine first brought the terrorists to power with their mass militant vote, who then actually launched the terror in Israel, and who is the real aggressor (since all of this are unnecessary details), just as many, by the way, don't care who started the war in Ukraine. They just need to stupidly feign vigorous activity so as not to lose their place in the sun. And where the f*ck were you all with your slogans on October 7, 2023?"

US policy is influenced by the fact that the USA buys uranium from Russia

From the Dialog, Oct 4:

"Podolyak explained why the West has recognized the threat but is still not ready to take action: "For them, it's war..." 

Mykhailo Podolyak stated that those European countries closer to Ukraine are "waking up" faster

Mikhail Podolyak answered the question of whether anyone would recognize Rosatom as a terrorist organization: "Unfortunately, they don't, because they are supplying almost $1 billion worth of uranium to the United States. Russia has been integrated into the global resource-based economic process, and this doesn't allow countries to refuse, because many businessmen, unfortunately, still profit from cooperation with the Russian Federation."  

Mikhail Podolyak spoke about this on the ICTV YouTube channel. 

"Understanding and willingness to act are two different psychological components. You need to understand that the closer you are to Ukraine, the more deeply you understand what's happening. Look at the countries of Northern Europe, the countries of Eastern Europe, with the exception of Hungary... These countries already sincerely understand what's coming to Europe and what already exists in Europe, and that Russia won't stop," the political strategist expressed his view on the situation. 

Mikhail Podolyak then added: "Russia, on the contrary, today feels it has the opportunity to live as it wishes, amidst constant escalation, in constant war. In other words, they are 'in love' with this war. For them, war is the realization of a dream of dominance for the 'Russian world,' but this realization and action are two different things. For example, the further you are from Ukraine (for example, in Central Europe, Western Europe), the less prepared you are to accept that the world is being rebuilt, rapidly rebuilt. They are precisely the ones who are inclined to long discussions."" 

Russia is nuclear-armed terrorist organization

From UNIAN:

"Nuclear Power Plant Attacks: Russia is Hamas with Nuclear Weapons

Vladimir Omelchenko, Director of Energy Programs, Razumkov Center, 03.10.25

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin continues to issue threats against Ukraine. Specifically, at a session of the Valdai Discussion Club, he raised the possibility of Russian strikes on Ukrainian nuclear power plants. 

Trump again sides with Putin

From the Telegraph / Yahoo!News:

"Trump criticises Ukraine for ‘attacking Putin’s house’

Antonia Langford

Donald Trump has criticised Ukraine for allegedly attacking Vladimir Putin’s official residence in an overnight drone strike.

Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said on Monday that Moscow had downed 91 long-range drones over Putin’s Valdai residence in Novgorod, without providing any evidence, and said Russia’s position in peace talks would “be revised” as a result.

Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed the claims as “another round of lies” intended to derail negotiations, but the US president sided with Russia and said the alleged attack left him “very angry”.

After a phone call with Putin, Mr Trump told reporters outside Mar-a-Lago: “You know who told me about it? President Putin, early in the morning, he said he was attacked. It’s no good. “It’s a delicate period of time. This is not the right time. It’s one thing to be offensive because they’re offensive. It’s another thing to attack his house. It’s not the right time to do any of that.”

Alexander Grushko, Russia’s deputy minister of foreign affairs, also claimed there was a “British influence” discernible in the attack. “The Russian Federation will respond accordingly to this provocation,” he said of the drone strike.

But Mr Zelensky said in a statement on X: “This alleged ‘residence strike’ story is a complete fabrication intended to justify additional attacks against Ukraine, including Kyiv, as well as Russia’s own refusal to take necessary steps to end the war.”

The claims by Mr Lavrov, who does not typically announce drone strikes, came hours after Mr Trump met Mr Zelensky in Mar-a-Lago for peace talks where he said US security guarantees were “95 per cent” decided.

Russia’s defence ministry earlier on Monday claimed that it had only downed 89 Ukrainian drones across the country overnight, with just 18 over the Novgorod region, appearing to contradict Mr Lavrov’s claims.

Mr Lavrov said the Kremlin’s position in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine would “be revised” as a result of what he called a “terrorist attack”, but claimed that Moscow has no intention of withdrawing from talks. He told Russian state media: “Such reckless actions will not go unanswered,” adding that Moscow had already identified targets for a retaliatory strike on Ukraine. 

The statement by the foreign minister was unusual because drone strikes by Ukraine are usually announced by Russia’s regional authorities and defence ministry.

Senior Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said Mr Trump was “shocked” when he was told about the alleged attack on the phone call with Putin. Mr Ushakov also claimed that Mr Trump had said “thank God” he did not supply Kyiv with long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles, adding that it would “undoubtedly” affect America’s approach to negotiations.

Meanwhile, Andrii Sybiha, Ukraine’s foreign minister, accused Moscow of looking for “false justification” for further strikes, after Russia launched a huge assault on Kyiv early on Saturday.

It was not clear whether Putin was at the residence at the time of the alleged strike. Reports have stated that the Russian president has increasingly favoured Valdai since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022. The countryside property is located on a peninsula between two lakes, making it difficult to target with drones and missiles, and is thought to be heavily guarded. Satellite imagery from 2024 showed 12 heavy-duty Pantsir-S1 air defence systems installed around Lake Valdai as Kyiv stepped up its attacks on Russian soil...

Mr Zelensky revealed that he asked Mr Trump to provide Ukraine with security guarantees lasting half a century. He said to journalists after his meeting with Mr Trump in Florida: “I told [Mr Trump] that the war is still going on, and it has been going on for almost 15 years ... I told him that we would very much like to consider the possibility of 30, 40, 50 years.” He added that Mr Trump had replied that he would think about the request...

Mr Trump said on Sunday that US security guarantees were “95 per cent” decided, but added that European countries would “take over a big part” of the effort to ensure Ukraine’s security in the event of a peace deal."

***

Who in his right mind, however, would trust Trump's security guarantees? Not that Trump's predecessors were much better - they reneged their obligations by the Budapest Memorandum. 

Ukrainian foreign minister: Governments worry about fake Ukrainian attack against Putin but not about real Russian attack against Ukrainian government

Ukrainian foreign minister Andriy Sybiha in X:

"Almost a day passed and Russia still hasn’t provided any plausible evidence to its accusations of Ukraine’s alleged “attack on Putin’s residence.” And they won’t. Because there’s none. No such attack happened. 

We were disappointed and concerned to see the statements by Emirati, Indian, and Pakistani sides expressing their concerns regarding the attack that never happened.

It is even more surprising given that all three states failed to issue any official statements when a real Russian missile struck the real Ukrainian government building on September 7, 2025. 

Russia has a long record of false claims — it’s their signature tactic. For instance, Russia claimed it wouldn’t attack Ukraine in the beginning of 2022. They also often accuse others of what they themselves plan to do. Their words should never be taken at face value. 

Such reactions to Russia’s baseless manipulative claims only play into Russian propaganda and encourage Moscow for more atrocities and lies. We call on all states to act responsibly and refrain from responding to unverified claims — this undermines the constructive peace process that has been advancing lately." 

ISW: Russian claims about Ukrainian strike against Putin's residence do not add up

I am interrupting the stream of old news with an actual one - from the Institute for the Study of War:

"Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 29, 2025

The Kremlin accused Ukraine of conducting a long-range drone strike targeting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence in Novgorod Oblast on December 29. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed that Ukrainian forces launched 91 long-range drones against Putin’s residence overnight on December 28 to 29 in Novgorod Oblast, likely referring to the residence in Valdai, Novgorod Oblast.[1] Lavrov claimed that Russian forces downed the drones and that the strike caused no damage. Lavrov condemned this alleged strike and stated that Russia will “revise” its negotiating position due to the strike. US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin had a phone call on December 29, and Russian Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov stated that Putin informed Trump about the claimed strike and told him that Russia will “reconsider” its position on peace agreements.[2] The United States has not published a readout of the December 29 Trump-Putin call as of this writing, though US officials — including Trump — confirmed the call occurred and that Putin made claims to Trump about the alleged strike.[3]   

The circumstances of this alleged strike do not conform to the pattern of observed evidence when Ukrainian forces conduct strikes into Russia. Confirmed Ukrainian strikes in Russia typically generate evidence observable in open sources. Such evidence includes footage, often geolocated, of air defense operations, explosions, fires, or smoke plumes near targeted objects; statements from local and regional Russian authorities, usually downplaying successful Ukrainian strikes as “debris” from downed drones; and reports from local sources and media of fire or damage to such objects. ISW has not observed any such footage nor local or regional reporting about Ukrainian strikes near Putin’s residence to corroborate Lavrov’s claim. Lavrov’s claim of downing 89 Ukrainian drones over Novgorod Oblast is also inconsistent with the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD’s) claim that Russian forces downed 47 Ukrainian drones over the oblast overnight on December 28 to 29, further undermining the claim. Ukrainian forces previously struck numerous military targets in Novgorod Oblast, which produced evidence.[4] The Kremlin has offered no evidence to support its claim that Ukrainian forces targeted Putin’s residence on December 29.

Russian opposition outlet Sota published an investigation into the alleged strike on December 29, reporting that Valdai residents did not hear air defenses operating overnight, even though Russian air defenses would have had to operate to down up to 91 Ukrainian drones.[5] Sota reported that drones launched from Ukraine’s northern border would have to cross into heavily protected Russian airspace, including multiple installations of Strategic Missile Forces facilities, air defense units, military aviation, and other assets that would either be under heavy air defense protection or themselves act as the Russian air defense umbrella. Sota concluded that Ukraine would have been able to strike Putin’s residence in Valdai through a “miracle” or deliberate Russian military negligence. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL)’s Russia service reported in August 2025 that Russia increased the number of air defense systems defending Valdai from two to 12 from 2022 to August 2025.[6]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky refuted the alleged strike against Putin’s residence in Novgorod Oblast and warned that Russia will use this claim to justify strikes against Kyiv City and Ukrainian government buildings.[7] Russia has already targeted Ukrainian government buildings in previous long-range strikes, including Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers building in Kyiv City in September 2025.[8] Lavrov stated that Russia has determined the targets and timing for retaliatory strikes against Ukraine but did not provide further specifics.[9] Russia has already intensified its long-range strike campaign against Ukraine in recent months, however, specifically targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure ahead of Winter 2025-2026.[10] Russia has notably intensified strikes against Ukraine around negotiations multiple times since the Trump administration began pursuing peace efforts in Winter 2025, including most recently overnight on December 26 to 27, ahead of Zelensky’s talks with Trump in Florida on December 28.[11] Russian overnight long-range strike packages purposefully target Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and disproportionately impact civilians.[12]

The Kremlin may intend to use this claimed strike to justify its rejection of any peace proposals that come out of recent bilateral US-Ukrainian and multilateral US-Ukrainian-European talks.[13] Ushakov’s readout of the December 29 Trump-Putin call criticized the US-Ukrainian framework, likely referring to the 20-point peace proposal, as “still leav[ing] room” for Ukraine to “avoid” unspecified obligations and rejected the notion of a ceasefire.[14] Since the Trump administration began peace efforts in January-February 2025, the Kremlin has sought to delay and prolong peace negotiations in order to continue its war undisturbed, prevent the U.S. from imposing measures intended to pressure Russia into meaningful negotiations, and even to extract concessions about bilateral US-Russian relations.[15]

Russian President Vladimir Putin and high-ranking Russian military commanders held another meeting to aggrandize tactical details and create the false impression that the front lines across Ukraine are on the verge of collapse. Putin met with the leadership of the Russian General Staff and grouping of forces commanders on December 29 — following a string of performative, publicized meetings between Putin and his commanders in recent weeks, including the most recent meeting on December 27.[16] Putin, Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov, and the groupings of forces commanders made a series of exaggerated claims about Russian successes across the battlefield, all of which rely on exaggerated quantitative data intended to obfuscate the relatively slow rate of Russian advances. Gerasimov claimed that Russian forces seized over 700 square kilometers and 32 settlements in Ukraine in December 2025 and 6,640 square kilometers and 334 settlements in total in 2025. ISW has observed evidence indicating a Russian presence (either through assaults or infiltration missions) in 480 square kilometers, and that Russian forces seized or completely infiltrated 23 settlements in December 2025. ISW has also observed evidence indicating a Russian presence in 4,952 square kilometers and seized or completely infiltrated 245 settlements in all of 2025. Russian Northern Grouping of Forces Commander Colonel General Yevgeny Nikiforov claimed that Russian forces seized 940 square kilometers in Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts in 2025. ISW has observed evidence to assess a Russian presence in 639 square kilometers in Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts during 2025. Nikiforov notably claimed that Russian forces have advanced to within 20 kilometers of Sumy City in 2025 — an implicit acknowledgement that Russian forces have advanced under seven kilometers deep in the area, given that Sumy City is located roughly 27 kilometers from the Sumy Oblast northern international border where Russian forces hold the deepest positions.

Putin and senior Russian military officials continued to heavily aggrandize Russian operations near Kupyansk despite all available evidence indicating that Ukrainian forces have liberated much of the town and surrounding area.[17] Russian Western Grouping of Forces Commander Colonel General Sergei Kuzovlev claimed that Russian forces will complete the encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Kupyansk in January to February 2026, which is incredibly slow compared to how long Russian officials have been making claims about nearly completing the seizure of Kupyansk.[18] ... Gerasimov and the other Russian commanders claimed that Russian forces seized Dibrova (northwest of Siversk), Drobysheve (northwest of Lyman), and Lukyanivske (northwest of Orikhiv) as of December 29. ISW has not observed geolocated evidence to assess any Russian presence in Dibrova or Drobysheve as of December 29, or that Russian forces completed the seizure of Lukyanivske. Russian Southern Grouping of Forces Commander Lieutenant General Sergei Medvedev claimed on December 29 that Russian forces have seized 40 to 45 percent of Kostyantynivka — contradicting Gerasimov’s December 27 claim that Russian forces seized over half of the buildings in Kostyantynivka.[21] ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces have operated in five percent of Kostyantynivka. Gerasimov claimed that Russian forces control over half of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast though ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces have operated in only six percent of Lyman... 

The Kremlin is intensifying its efforts to portray the front line as imminently collapsing across the theater and claim that Russian forces are capable of imminently threatening Ukraine’s Fortress Belt. Available evidence continues to indicate that the front line is not collapsing, and Russian forces would require at least two to three years to seize all of Ukraine’s Fortress Belt.[22] Pro-war Russian ultranationalist milbloggers are publicly acknowledging that the Russian military command’s claims are exaggerated..."

***

When told by Putin about the alleged Ukrainian strike, Trump of course believed every word, and said that the news made him "very angry".

Monday, December 29, 2025

Kuleba: For Trump, any success of Ukraine is bad

From an interview of former Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba to the Orest Sohar in the Obozrevatel, Oct 4:

" – Why is Trump so drawn to Putin's embrace? I think they're politically close. They both recognize the primacy of force in politics; they enjoy flexing their muscles and dominating the world based on their economic, political, and military advantages...

They like each other on a human level. Including for the reasons you described. Second,... it is important to understand that in Trump's world, in the world of the realist school of American foreign policy in general (where there are both Democrats and Republicans), victory, any success for Ukraine in the war with Russia is harmful.

Why? Because it sends the wrong message: that you don't have to submit to the will of the strong. It means you can resist and get your way. And tomorrow, America will come to, say, the Latin American country of Panama to seize the canal. Panama will say, "We'll be like Ukraine; we'll all rise up in war for our independence."

– How unexpectedly you 'twisted' this.  

I know how they think. I've interacted with them a lot in my life. And for them, this is a problem. It's impossible. And especially for Trump.

– What is the most cynical statement from our partners or politicians that you have heard while on duty?

That "we won’t give you Patriots, because by the time you learn how to use them, the war will already be over". 

– Did the Americans say this?

Yes. My most painful disappointment was that in 2024, when air attacks intensified significantly, we still weren't able to receive those famous 10 Patriot batteries. One arrived, then we were promised another. For me, the Patriot story is the most painful, because it could have been done much faster, in larger quantities, but we were never able to convince our partners to help us with it on a large scale."