The "diplomatic trance" of the West concerning Russian aggression

Translating form in interview with the Ukrainian ex-foreign minister Volodymyr Ohryzko in the Obozrevatel:

"The Kremlin is preparing another trap for Ukraine: what are Putin's plans and will Trump dare to impose "hellish" sanctions. Interview with Ohryzko 

Roman Pryadun, 22.07.2025 07:00 

- The day before, Russia attacked Ukrainian cities with several types of missiles and hundreds of drones. This is, in fact, Putin's response to the so-called ultimatum from Trump. Here he is demonstrating what he thinks about what Trump proposed a few days ago. This is exactly how it was supposed to be: Putin brazenly demonstrating what he thinks about Trump's "initiative".

– On the one hand, the missile attacks continue, and on the other – you see, a few days ago Moscow made statements that they were ready for negotiations. I’m just getting to the point that this is a typical Muscovite tactic: on the one hand, to destroy Ukraine, as they did on the night of July 21, and on the other – to spread stories about their ardent “desire” to negotiate. And this is exactly what we must convey to Trump. Their “desire” for negotiations has nothing to do with ending the war. Trump has a simple but false logic in his head: if we sit them down at the negotiating table, the war will automatically end. But this is an illusion. This is a profound misunderstanding of the essence of what Russia wants. And it wants formal negotiations and a continuation of the war. This is exactly what we are talking about. And, unfortunately, this illusion is not only in Trump’s head. Some of our Western partners have also, you know, fallen into some kind of diplomatic trance: they say that as soon as we sit everyone down at the table, everything will immediately be settled. But this is naivety of the highest order.  

– Actually, in recent days, especially after Trump’s statement about “50 days” and “hellish sanctions” if there is no ceasefire, calls have started coming from the Kremlin. In particular, to Ukraine, and most importantly to the United States and Donald Trump: “Bring Ukraine to the negotiating table.” And again: the “Istanbul format” is supposedly the only one. Well, at least that’s what the Kremlin says. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, like Foreign Minister Sybig, clearly stated: such a format, when the Russians come with another ultimatum, essentially mocking, is unacceptable. And yet Ukraine agreed to another round of Istanbul talks this week. In your opinion, why did they agree? Is this again “for Trump’s sake”? Does Ukraine need this format at all? For example, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte directly said that “Istanbul is a complete farce.” In plain text: these are not negotiations.

– Firstly, Rutte is an experienced man, and he knows exactly what he is talking about. And I thank him for speaking directly, not diplomatically. Because the only real benefit of such “negotiations” is the opportunity to return our heroes from Russian concentration camps. This is really worth all the effort. But again: is the level of the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council necessary for this? In my opinion, no. This is a task for the special services, the Human Rights Commissioner, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs – within their competence. This is a technical level. And we certainly shouldn’t make “peace negotiations” or a “ceasefire” out of this. Because what happens next? After such meetings, which yield absolutely nothing, messages fly from Moscow to Washington: “Look, Trump, you wanted negotiations – we are already holding the third round. We insist on Ukraine’s capitulation, but they stubbornly refuse. What can we do? We will continue bombing.” This is the logic of these Moscow bandits. And why should we play along in this dirty game – frankly, I don’t understand.  

- Regarding another format of negotiations - a personal meeting between Russian dictator Putin and the Ukrainian president. Volodymyr Zelensky has been talking about this a lot lately: "Let's organize a direct meeting." Do you consider such negotiations acceptable? And, most importantly, can they bring real results?

– Let’s listen to what the Moscow clique usually says in such cases – including the war criminal Putin himself. They all say in one voice: “Yes, we are for negotiations, but...” And after this “but” everything becomes clear. They must be, they say, “very well prepared” and have a “practical result.” And this means the capitulation of Ukraine. Because the only result acceptable to Moscow is our complete capitulation. And since we will not agree to this, there will be no negotiations. But publicly everything looks great: “Yes, we are ready. In Istanbul, in Kabul, and anywhere...” But as soon as it comes to the content – and the content is: “You must come, kneel and sign the act of capitulation” – then it becomes clear that these are not negotiations. This is a farce. What, they will sit there and one will talk about the Rurikovichs, and the other – about the fact that this morning they destroyed another school in Kharkiv? This is not even cynicism – this is a clinic. Therefore, the only format that still has any logic is when Ukraine sits on one side with the leaders of Western countries, and Putin on the other. Let him tell the whole world about his "historical mission", about the "Rurikovichs", about the "right to everything". Let everyone see that he has finally and irrevocably lost touch with reality. But a one-on-one meeting - without witnesses, without international pressure, without a clear position from Ukraine - is simply betrayal. And we certainly don't need it.  

- German Chancellor Merz is another European politician who is also not afraid to call things by their proper names. He said directly: diplomatic opportunities to end the war in Ukraine have been exhausted. Now we only need to strengthen Ukraine and put pressure on Putin with sanctions and deterrent instruments. In your opinion, are there any prerequisites for at least a ceasefire at this stage?

– As of today – no. And Merz is absolutely right. The best “sanction” against Moscow is the latest weapons for Ukraine. And not symbolic, but in large quantities, sufficient to really put pressure on Russia. Imagine that Ukraine receives long-range weapons with a range of up to a thousand kilometers. That we have hundreds of such missiles that are capable of destroying military infrastructure in the European part of Russia. That we can reach Moscow or St. Petersburg. Although, frankly speaking, it may not be worth shooting there – all the same, air defense systems are collected there from all over the world. But everything outside these two cities – warehouses, logistics hubs, production – all this can be disabled. And this is realistic. And this is the most effective sanction that can be devised. And only after such a “signal” will Russia perhaps think: is it worth continuing the war or should we cease fire? But here it is important: we constantly confuse two concepts – “ceasefire” and “peace agreement”. These are completely different things. When they say that a peace agreement must be concluded in 50 days, it is nonsense. It is either a fantasy or an attempt to capitulate Ukraine. Because the West does not want to see Russia's capitulation at all. Therefore, the maximum that can be discussed is a ceasefire. But Moscow does not want that either. Because as soon as a ceasefire is achieved, NATO troops may immediately appear on Ukrainian territory. And that means the end of any Russian "plans" - whether immediate or creeping. And Putin cannot allow that. That is all the simple, calm, understandable logic.  

- Regarding Trump's statements. He says: "The war must stop. If not, I will impose sanctions." And now Putin continues to bomb Ukrainian cities. That is, complete disregard. Meanwhile, Lindsay Graham, a senator who is promoting the sanctions bill against Russia, literally said: "Putin, it's your turn. Trump is going to kick your ass." So what do you think: if the situation remains as it is, will Trump really dare to impose tough sanctions against Russia and other instruments of pressure? After all, according to the head of the President's Office Andriy Yermak, if the United States introduces this "hellish" package, including bilateral measures against Brazil, China, India, on oil, this could force Putin to stop the war. So how do you assess this possibility?

– Firstly, I am not at all sure that Trump will not say after September 2: "You know, I need another 50 days." We have already seen it more than once: he changes his mind very easily and quickly – even about "the most terrible things." And most importantly, he does not explain anything. He just goes and changes. And here the main problem arises – he has no stability, no trust. Because if he really implemented what he promises, then it would be a different story. But if he first makes loud statements, and then nothing happens, then it is like in a fairy tale: "Wolves! Wolves!" – and there are no wolves. The US President's entourage is really starting to speak more harshly – and that is good. But this is still not Trump himself. I repeat again and again: you need to understand his psychology. And, by the way, I highly recommend viewers read the memoirs of the former national security adviser – John Bolton. He worked with the current American leader during his first term and clearly describes that everything can be agreed upon in the White House – even agreed upon with allies. And the next morning, Trump wakes up, looks at the ceiling – and makes a different decision. That is, even if the partners have already been notified – it means nothing. Trump changes his mind without warning. So I am not sure that in September he will really take on Russia for real. Unless something happens that will force him to act.

 

If he does introduce this sanctions package, then Russia will undoubtedly have serious problems. Although today oil no longer provides 50% of the Russian budget – only 30-35% – even this percentage, if it starts to “dry up”, will cause a gigantic hole in the budget, and these are real problems that are very difficult to solve. Because Russian entrepreneurs are already saying: “We are stopping. We are going bankrupt. We cannot do business.” And these are not only large companies. These are already medium and small businesses. That is, a process has been launched that cannot be stopped. It is a snowball that is slowly but steadily gaining speed. And if sanctions are really imposed, the speed will increase even more. But let’s not forget: the main goal of most Western leaders is to prevent Russia’s defeat. And this must be clearly understood. They are afraid that if Russia collapses, they will not know what to do with that territory. And they do not want to think about it. “Let the next generation of politicians deal with this, and leave us alone” – this has been the logic of the Western establishment... starting with the annexation of Crimea. 

 

Yes, Putin is a villain. But, they say, it is better to have a territory under the control of a thief than not know what will happen there without him. This is the logic of most of those who now rule Western capitals. And this is the biggest problem. That is why the actions are appropriate. Yes, Biden gave us a lot of help - and he is sincerely grateful for this. But he did not give it so that we would win, but only so that we would not lose. And if Trump breaks this system, although I do not believe in this at all, then we will really get a chance. Otherwise, we only have promises. Here is an example: they declare 17 Patriot systems. And Germany says: "We will send one in six months." So where are the other 16? Where is the help they are talking about? Where is the real closure of the skies? And without this, how can we act? How can we attack when dozens, and soon, perhaps, hundreds of "Shaheds" and missiles fly overhead every day? Everything breaks down into very simple elements. If there is a desire to change something, you need to act. But for now we hear only one thing: "We will do everything so that you do not die, but not win either." That's the real picture."