Saturday, February 28, 2026

What is offered to Ukraine is not "Korean scenario" because, unlike Korea, there will be no US troops

From the Dialog, Dec 11, 2025:

"A Korean scenario without guarantees: what's wrong with the "high-tech" demilitarized zone offered to Ukraine – FT

Ukrainian authorities warn that the American plan to create a demilitarized zone is creating a pause for a new war by Russia.  

The US peace plan for Ukraine calls for the creation of a "high-tech" demilitarized zone, but does not include US peacekeepers or long-term guarantees similar to those in place on the Korean Peninsula. Experts warn that without these conditions, the plan remains extremely risky for Ukraine, according to an article in the Financial Times.  

According to the publication, the first version of the US administration's plan includes a provision for the creation of a demilitarized zone in Ukraine, which would separate Ukrainian and Russian troops, similar to the model used after the Korean War. However, unlike the Korean War precedent, where large-scale US forces have ensured South Korea's security for 70 years, Washington's proposed plan lacks critical guarantees. 

According to Ukrainian and European negotiators, US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, who was dispatched to Kyiv by Trump to persuade the Ukrainian authorities to accept the plan, spoke in detail about the aforementioned zone.  

According to European diplomats present at the meeting, Driscoll asserted that the Trump administration would create "the most powerful and high-tech demilitarized zone" in the world in eastern Ukraine. However, the US offered Kyiv neither the size of a potential peacekeeping contingent, nor a protection mechanism, nor the terms of response to Moscow's violations. Even the "coalition of the willing," led by Great Britain and France, is discussing the possible deployment of peacekeepers only in the central and western regions of Ukraine, that is, far from the front line. 

The main problem, Ukrainian negotiators emphasize, is the lack of equivalents to the key element of the Korean model—American troops. There are currently 28,500 US troops stationed on the Korean Peninsula, including units from all branches of the armed forces and the Special Operations Command. Their presence has remained unchanged for over 15 years, and it is precisely this presence that makes the Korean scenario viable. In Ukraine, however, the US has refused to deploy its own peacekeepers.  

Ukraine views the proposed demilitarization not as a path to sustainable peace, but as a mechanism for freezing the conflict. According to the Ukrainian leadership, this format would allow Moscow to recuperate, regroup, and prepare for a new offensive."

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