From the Dialog, Nov 23, 2025:
""To Push or Not to Push": Analyst Assesses US Opportunities to Force Kyiv to Accept the Controversial Plan
The United States currently has virtually no significant leverage over Ukraine regarding the peace plan
Anders Nielsen, a military analyst at the Royal Danish Defence College, assessed the United States' ability to pressure Ukraine to accept the controversial 28 points of the peace plan...
Washington has effectively given Ukraine an ultimatum: either agree to a capitulation "peace plan" by November 27 or lose all US military aid.
Nielsen assessed America's ability to exert pressure on Ukraine in this situation. The expert's key statements are listed below.
— The Russians and Americans have drawn up a new peace plan—in effect, an ultimatum for Ukraine. Realistically, the Americans can apply pressure on two areas where they provide assistance to Ukraine: intelligence information and arms sales.
— The importance of intelligence is somewhat overstated. Ukrainians themselves have often deliberately exaggerated its importance over the past six months: this is done for political reasons to keep the US in the coalition. American intelligence is useful primarily for providing early warning of Russian air attacks, bypassing Russian air defense systems, and hunting these systems. However, Ukraine is capable of fighting without it.
— A more important factor than intelligence is American arms sales. These are implemented through the PURL initiative, where Ukrainians prioritize the types of weapons needed, and Europeans purchase from the Americans accordingly. This initiative was seen as a win-win: Ukrainians get weapons, Americans get money, and Europeans keep the US engaged in Europe's defense through commercial interests.
— If Trump withdraws from the PURL initiative, it will threaten political consequences for him. He is essentially foregoing profits for the US simply to help the Russians win the war, which will cause serious discontent at home and abroad.
— Some commentators note that the plan is disadvantageous to Putin, as it will not achieve all of the stated goals of the "SVO." However, Putin clearly believes that this plan is far more disadvantageous for Ukraine: it will either cause a profound political crisis in Ukraine if adopted, or it will damage relations with the United States if rejected.
— The plan is truly disadvantageous for Ukraine: under it, Ukraine loses territory, part of its sovereignty, the prospect of bringing war criminals to justice, and much more. The "security guarantees" in the plan are not clearly spelled out, and nothing will prevent the Russians from gaining a respite and then preparing a provocation in Ukraine's name to gain a convenient opportunity to resume the war.
— Zelenskyy recorded an address in which he stated that Ukraine faces a choice: lose its dignity or lose an important partner. In reality, there is no choice: Zelenskyy will never accept this plan.
— The Ukrainian president's statement is the first step toward softening the American blow and laying the groundwork for rejecting the ultimatum terms of the peace treaty and further diplomatic efforts to rectify the situation.
— This situation also offers a lesson for European and Ukrainian diplomacy. So far, Ukrainians and Europeans have been trying to convince Trump that Russia is an obstacle to peace, while Russians have tried to convince him that Ukraine and Europe are the obstacles. And with the launch of the PURL initiative and new US sanctions against Russia, it seemed like the Ukrainians and Europeans were successful.
— Perhaps Ukraine and Europe should now adopt a more straightforward and frank diplomatic approach so that their interests are taken more seriously."
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