Europe should stop groveling to Trump

From the Faktor:

"Prof. Nathalie Tocci: Trump wants a subservient Europe - through collusion with Putin 

December 7, 2025 

Europeans have taken solace in the belief that US President Donald Trump is unpredictable and fickle, but ultimately a man to work with. This strange reassurance is misplaced, warns Professor Nathalie Tocci, director of the Institute of International Relations in Rome, in an analysis for Foreign Policy... 

"From Vice President J.D. Vance's speech humiliating Europe at the Munich Security Conference in February to the new US National Security Strategy announced on December 4, the Trump administration has long had a clear and consistent vision for Europe - one that prioritizes US-Russia relations and seeks to divide and conquer the continent, with much of the 'dirty work' being done by nationalist, far-right European forces now supported by both Moscow and Washington," Professor Tocci noted. 

What else her analysis says: 

It is long past time for Europe to understand that when it comes to the war in Ukraine and the continent’s security, at best it is alone. At worst, it now faces two adversaries: Russia to the east and Trump’s United States to the west. 

Whenever Trump or members of his administration attack Europe, including Ukraine, Europeans take the blows with a fake smile and bend over backwards to flatter the White House. They believe it is a clever ploy, playing on Trump’s inconsistency and vanity to bring him back into the transatlantic family. But every time Trump turns his attention to the war in Ukraine, he sides with Russia — from the Oval Office trap for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in February, to the red carpet rolled out for Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska in August, to the 28-point “peace plan” that was presumably written in Moscow. 

At every turn, Europeans are taking the brunt of the pressure, busy keeping Washington engaged and salvaging what remains of the transatlantic relationship. Europeans turn the other cheek to Trump so often that one wonders if they have one left. 

Europe is betting on the wrong horse 

When it comes to Europe, Ukraine, and Russia, the Trump administration is remarkably coherent. Trump wants the war in Ukraine to end, largely because he sees it as an irritant that is impeding the normalization of U.S.-Russia relations—especially planned business deals between his circle and those close to the Kremlin. 

The liberal world order is gone; in its place comes “survival of the fittest.” Instead of classic superpower rivalry, Trump is inclined to seek imperial collaboration with both Russia and China. The rest of the world, including Europe, is on the colonial menu. 

Strategically, this makes some short-term sense. Ideologically, it aligns with support for far-right parties and governments in Europe and beyond. These forces not only share the nationalist and socially conservative views propagated by MAGA, but also work to divide Europe and artificially exhaust the European integration project - center-right forces play the role of "useful idiots" through their cooperation. 

There is nothing less patriotic than self-proclaimed patriots and sovereignists in Europe tearing apart European unity while seeking collaboration with Russia. 

The vision set forth in the new US National Security Strategy is sparse on specific policies regarding Europe, but the message of the document is clear: The only possible transatlantic relationship is one between far-right forces, where alpha Americans dominate their European subordinates. 

This is an exact parallel to the vision and strategy that Putin’s Russia has been applying to Europe for years. 

If Trump has not yet bent Europe to his will, it is not because of clever European tricks. Trump’s flattery, his “dad” address, his showering of gifts and his invitations to royal dinners will not save Ukraine or the relationship between Europe and the United States. Nor will feverish European diplomacy, collective visits to Washington or alternative peace plans. If Trump has not yet realized his vision of a war in Ukraine and a new balance of power in Europe, it is simply because Putin is still playing it safe. But counting on Putin to always sabotage the US-Russia rapprochement cannot be a European security strategy.

What should Europeans do then? 

The good news is that there is a critical mass of European societies and governments that understand that European security passes through Kiev. These include Germany, France, Britain, Poland, the Scandinavian countries, the Baltic states, the Netherlands, Spain and, with some reservations, Italy – if for no other reason than because the Italians do not want to be left out. They understand that Russia’s imperialist war begins with Ukraine, but does not end there, and that Kiev’s capitulation will free up Russian resources to open new fronts against Europe. Ukraine is (tragically) the gateway that prevents the hybrid war already raging in Europe from escalating into a much more serious military attack.  

The second piece of good news is that Europe has leverage — perhaps even more than the United States — when it comes to the war in Ukraine. Since Trump took office, American support for Ukraine has stalled. Europe owns most of the frozen Russian assets, imposes sanctions that are truly painful, supports Ukraine economically, and provides the bulk of its military aid. Thanks to European investment in Ukraine, an increasing portion of the country’s defense is based on its own industry.

This is not to say that the picture is too rosy. The United States is still extremely important to Ukraine and Europe notably for the intelligence that allows Ukraine to intercept Russian drones and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, as well as to identify targets for deep strikes inside Russia. The United States also profits from the sale of weapons that Europeans buy for Ukraine—weapons that Europe does not produce on the necessary scale, or at all.

This brings us to the broader dilemma: Europe seeks to reduce its vulnerabilities by increasing defense spending, but often this means buying more American weapons. Thus Europe reduces its short-term vulnerabilities at the cost of increasing its long-term dependence on the United States, which now uses that dependence as a weapon. Europeans are far from solving this problem.

While a systemic solution to European security is not in sight, Europe has the leverage to prevent Ukraine’s capitulation and create the conditions for a just peace. Two elements are missing, however. 

 

The first is Europe’s ability to focus on its strategic purpose. European leaders and institutions have an abstract understanding of long-term strategy, but in practice they are often obsessed with short-term, selfish interests. This is particularly evident in the myopic positions of Belgium and the European Central Bank on the use of frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine. While there are financial and legal risks, they pale in comparison to the political, economic, and security costs to Europe if Ukraine falls. 

 

The second element is courage. European leaders must muster the courage to go to Washington, politely thank Trump for his “peaceful” efforts, and convince him that the world is full of other conflicts that demand his attention..."