Russia emboldened by Trump's refusal to give Ukraine Tomahawks

From the Institute for the Study of War:

"Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 18, 2025

The Kremlin reiterated its commitment to Russia’s war demands that amount to Ukraine’s full capitulation in response to US President Donald Trump’s October 17 proposal for peace in Ukraine. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev responded on October 18 on his English and Russian language social media accounts to Trump’s October 17 call for both Russia and Ukraine to each “claim victory” in Ukraine.[1] Medvedev claimed that this call is not applicable to Russia and that Russia needs a victory “with the conditions everyone knows.”[2] Medvedev is likely referring to the Kremlin’s consistent pre-war demands to install a pro-Russian puppet government in Ukraine, Ukrainian neutrality and NATO abandoning its open-door policy, and limiting the size of Ukraine’s military as such that Ukraine could not defend itself against future Russian aggression.[3] 

Kremlin officials and mouthpieces broadly reacted to the October 17 meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky by cautiously reiterating Kremlin informational lines that aim to divide Ukraine from Western support and justify continuing its war in Ukraine.[4] Russian officials expressed cautious optimism about Trump’s reported decision against provisioning Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles at this time, but Medvedev hedged that US weapon deliveries will continue to Ukraine, however.[5] Russian Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) Head and Duma Deputy Leonid Slutsky claimed on October 18 that Trump’s reported decision against providing Tomahawks to Ukraine was due to his October 16 call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, in which Putin offered to meet with Trump in Hungary, claiming Trump’s reported decision as a victory for Putin.[6] Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) CEO and key Kremlin negotiator Kirill Dmitriev reiterated his October 16 and 17 US-Russian bilateral economic proposals following the Trump-Zelensky meeting, continuing efforts to incentivize economic cooperation in exchange for Trump giving up the peace effort and allowing Putin to continue his war in Ukraine without US pressure.[7]"