Russia's cognitive warfare

From the Institute for the Study of War:

"Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 24, 2025

...The Kremlin continues its multifaceted cognitive warfare effort aimed at influencing US decision makers in Russia’s favor in response to recent US sanctions. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed on October 24 that Russian President Vladimir Putin “promised a stunning response not only to the Tomahawk missile deliveries…but to [any] attempt to carry out strikes deep into Russian territory.”[13] The Kremlin has recently been engaged in a cognitive warfare effort framing the potential US provisioning of long-range Tomahawk missiles or any long-range missile strike against Russia as a red line, including by issuing overt threats regarding Russia’s ability and desire to respond militarily to Tomahawk missile provisions.[14] The Kremlin’s threat of a military response to Tomahawk missile provisions is the most recent line in its long-standing rhetorical effort to convince the West that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable due to Russia’s supposed military prowess and advantages over Ukraine and the wider West. Russia’s ongoing cognitive warfare effort to portray Russian victory as inevitable ignores the reality that Russian forces continue to make only minimal, grinding advances at disproportionately high casualty rates and that Russia is unlikely to obtain its strategic objectives in Ukraine by force in the short- or medium-term.[15] Russia often leverages threats, including nuclear saber-rattling, in order to obfuscate Russia’s own military weaknesses and false claims that the West and Ukraine are escalating the war in order to justify Russian escalations. ISW has observed the well-demonstrated pattern that Russia escalates its war in Ukraine as soon as it develops new weapons systems and tactics that Russia assesses will help its war effort. ISW assesses that Russia will continue to escalate the war at any moment of its choosing in the future, regardless of whether the West provides Ukraine with military assistance. The Kremlin notably has not offered any assurances that Russia will refrain from escalating its war in Ukraine even if the United States were to refrain from provisioning Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles.

Peskov also blamed Ukraine on October 24 for the “protracted pause” in negotiations and claimed that Europe is encouraging Ukraine’s unwillingness — a long-running Kremlin narrative designed to dually distract from Russia’s continued intransigence and discredit the current Ukrainian government and Europe.[16] Russia has repeatedly attempted to deflect blame for its lack of substantive progress toward peace in Ukraine, despite the fact that Russia remains unwilling to compromise on its war aims in exchange for peace.[17] Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently acknowledged that the West views Russia’s negotiating position as “maximalist” and stated that “Russia has not altered its positions” and that Russia expects that the “root causes” of the war to be addressed.[18] Lavrov has continued to define the root causes of Russia’s war in Ukraine as NATO’s eastward expansion and Ukraine’s alleged discrimination against Russian-speakers – similar reasons to those Russian President Vladimir Putin gave on February 24, 2022 when he launched the full-scale invasion.[19] Russian officials have repeatedly stated that Ukraine’s neutrality, alteration of NATO’s integral open-door policy, and the installation of a pro-Russian proxy government are the only conditions by which Ukraine and the West can address the supposed “root causes” of the war.[20] Zelensky, in stark contrast to Russia, has continually demonstrated Ukraine’s willingness to engage substantively in the peace initiative, including most recently by articulating his alignment with US President Donald Trump on implementing an immediate ceasefire.[21]

The Kremlin is attempting to weaponize reinvigorated US interest in bilateral cooperation with Russia and involvement in initiatives to return Ukrainian children to pressure the US administration.[22] Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed on October 24 that Ukraine and its allies are promoting an “anti-Russian smear campaign on the children’s issue” and that the US Senate is considering several “anti-Russian bills,” including a bill recognizing Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism for the “abduction of Ukrainian children.”[23] Kremlin-appointed Russian Commissioner for Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova recently implicated herself in the forced deportation and re-education of a Ukrainian teenager and admitted that she “stole” and re-educated the teenager into a pro-Russian ideology.[24] The Yale Humanitarian Research Lab estimates that Russia has likely deported upwards of 35,000 Ukrainian children, and ISW continues to observe reports that Russia maintains many “re-education” and militarization camps in occupied Ukraine and Russia.[25] Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov reiterated Russia’s desire to extend the New START Treaty despite recent US sanctions and claimed that “the first step toward cooperation could be the re-establishment” of dialogue on the treaty, which is set to expire in February 2026.[26] ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin remains committed to attempts to engage the United States on issues unrelated to Russia’s war in Ukraine in an effort to stall or bypass the negotiation progress and extract additional economic and political concessions.[27]..."