Interview of Ukrainian political scientist Vitaly Portnikov to Roman Pryadun in the Obozrevatel, 22.10.2025 (at that time, the Trump - Putin meeting in Budapest was not yet canceled):
"Several reasons why the Trump-Putin meeting in Budapest won't happen and why the US president made it all up. And why it doesn't change anything. An interview with Portnikov
- Regarding Budapest, Trump said the meeting was scheduled to take place in two or three weeks. But the news regarding its preparations is quite different. Lavrov and Rubio failed to agree on negotiations, which was predictable, given that Kremlin representatives unanimously declared "fulfilling the goals of the so-called 'CBO,'" not a ceasefire. But then why are these talks even taking place?
I think the very idea of the Budapest summit was based on Trump's belief that he could negotiate an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war with Putin. Perhaps Trump did indeed speak with Putin about certain territorial concessions on Ukraine's part. Or perhaps, after meeting with Zelenskyy, he realized that Ukrainian troops will not retreat from the positions they hold in Donbas. Therefore, a ceasefire can only take place along the actual demarcation line. We don't know for sure. But the fact is that Russia is not abandoning the positions it has effectively held since 2022. That means first, "resolving the causes of the conflict" and a "peace agreement," and only then will the fighting cease. But Trump insists on the opposite: first a ceasefire, then negotiations. And he cannot afford another foreign policy fiasco like the one we saw in Anchorage. In fact, that is the essence of the current events.
- Then why all this talk about Budapest? Trump comes out and declares: there's going to be a summit with Putin, get ready, everyone.
It doesn't matter what Trump says. I keep reminding people of this. In fact, the very practice of commenting on his words is already part of the political trap they want to lead us into. Trump already promised a bilateral summit between Putin and Zelenskyy after Anchorage. Then a trilateral one: Trump, Putin, and Zelenskyy. None of that happened. As it turns out, he didn't even agree with anyone on anything. He said that India had halved its imports of Russian oil – that also didn't happen. In other words, Trump is making a multitude of statements that have nothing to do with reality.
- However, these statements are damaging. They undermine the unity and pressure that Europe and Ukraine had been building, because the US is receiving a distorted message: that Trump has "understood" everything about Putin and Russia and is ready to apply pressure.
In fact, Trump couldn't care less what's happening in Ukraine, on the front lines. Yes, he knows that people are dying on both sides. And in this sense, for him, both Russians and Ukrainians are simultaneously victims of war. He wants to stop this killing, as he himself has said repeatedly. That's his position. And only then will he figure out who's right. It's exactly the same logic as in the Middle East.
- Why, if the tactic of reaching an agreement with Putin doesn't work, is there no real pressure?
Trump believes that pressure should be verbal, not practical. And, by the way, this could also be his calculation: if he starts acting tough and it doesn't produce results, he'll simply look weak. Because we must understand: even Tomahawks might not change the situation on the battlefield...
This whole Trump "carousel"—up and down, now for Russia, now for Ukraine—is just a tactic. He wants to force Russia to agree to a ceasefire. And then force Ukraine to accept Russia's terms. That's the whole strategy. Nothing complicated. It's just that Russia hasn't agreed to a ceasefire yet. And Trump doesn't know what to do next.
- Why does Putin need Budapest? He says Russia has the upper hand on the front lines, is pressuring from all sides, is doing well economically, and so on.
Putin needs to keep Trump on balance to avoid new sanctions and additional weapons for Ukraine. This allows him to comfortably wage war for years to come, forcing Ukraine to capitulate and disappear from the world political map. If this requires flattering Trump, calling him, promising a new meeting, Putin will do it.
It could all fall apart now, but in a month or two, another call will come, and another meeting will be attempted. And so on—this card can be played until 2029.
- If there are no concrete agreements, then there will be no Budapest?
Exactly. They won't meet because it would be a fiasco for Trump. What would he do if he walked out of the meeting without any results? It's a plus for Putin, but not a plus at all for Trump...
- It all looks like Trump is simply biding his time and is happy with the status quo – the way things are currently going.
I don't rule that out either.
- And Russia's scenario is: "Give us Donbass" – so that Ukraine refuses and Putin can say: look, they don’t want to give in?
Of course. Firstly, Ukraine won't want such concessions; secondly, if it agrees, it will lead to internal destabilization, which will facilitate its dismantling as a state. The idea is simple: the population will tire of the confrontation, and then it will be possible to "reorganize" Ukraine's statehood.
- European leaders are preparing to go to Trump again to convince him. Is he really a man convinced by the last conversation? This is already starting to look ridiculous.
It's ridiculous, yes. But there's no other US president yet. And it's not just that he's the ultimate authority. The problem is that he's undergone some serious changes in recent years. Something's happened to his mental health. Look, I thought: if Trump talks about Budapest, it means Putin already understands that to restrain Trump from real action, he needs to make concessions. Now it's clear that's not the case. So, we can assume that Trump is either simply making something up (like in Alaska) or telling his own dreams. And the rest of the world is forced to live in his fictional reality—and no one can stop him.
I don't rule out the worst-case scenarios—anything from behavioral changes to the onset of dementia. At the same time, no one in his inner circle can say outright, "Mr. President, your condition prevents you from working effectively." They're assenting because it's their career interests. And some of them may be counting on "waiting for his end."
- For his death?
Something like that."
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