Although it was
encouraging on Monday to see President Trump meeting with Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky shoulder-to-shoulder, alongside key NATO
and European Union leaders in the Oval Office, Russian President
Vladimir Putin preemptively delivered an answer to them by launching
another intentional attack against Ukrainian civilians.
This time it was in Kharkiv. Seven people were killed including a 15-year-old boy and a one-year-old baby girl.
Putin’s words are fleeting. His actions and that of his regime are what
counts. And if we listen to him, he is making it clear that he still
intends to get all of Ukraine, one way or the other — either at the
negotiating table or on the battlefield.
Team Trump must
recognize that Putin is giving them the equivalent of the middle finger.
Peace remains elusive in Ukraine. Putin continues
to demand total possession of the Russian-occupied territories of
Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson while retaining Crimea.
Zelensky and his European allies were quick to respond with a hard pass.
Team
Trump’s threats of harsh sanctions came and went after his Alaska
Summit with Putin failed to produce a ceasefire agreement. Putin laughed
off the B-2 bomber flyover and proceeded to plant his flag in
Anchorage.
The former KGB foreign
intelligence officer masterfully used the summit to bank propaganda wins
at home, despite the White House’s best spin efforts. Russian Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov set the tone as he arrived in Alaska by wearing a
gray sweatshirt emblazoned with “CCCP” — the Russian acronym for the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.
Putin’s
assault on the post-World War II order continued the following day when
he arrived in the U.S. with an International Criminal Court arrest warrant on
his head for war crimes in Ukraine. Yet instead of silver handcuffs, he
was greeted with a red-carpet rollout on the tarmac, a limousine ride
with Trump and was allowed to place flowers at the headstones of fallen Soviet World War II pilots at Fort Richardson National Cemetery.
Putin
appeared to convince Trump — again — that it is Zelensky who does not
want peace, because he won’t accept Moscow’s conditions for
capitulation. Meanwhile, Putin’s army continues to bomb Ukrainian cities with ballistic missiles and drones and his ground forces continue their slow grind of attrition warfare.
Russia keeps attacking — amassing over 1,072,700 casualties in the process. Ukraine keeps defending, and Trump’s frustrations mount. Unlike with the other six peace deals and ceasefires Trump has negotiated, neither Russia nor Ukraine are prepared to concede anything.
Trump is no closer to securing economic deals with Russia; his recourse has been to blame the victim, turning the screws on
Zelensky. “President Zelensky of Ukraine can end the war with Russia
almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight,” Trump
recently posted. “Remember how it started. No getting back Obama given
Crimea (12 years ago, without a shot being fired!), and NO GOING INTO
NATO BY UKRAINE.”
Monday’s round two summit with Zelensky and the European leaders was
by all accounts successful. European Commission President Ursula von der
Leyen, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, U.K. Prime Minister Keir
Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel
Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni joined Zelensky
and the President around the Resolute Desk, which presented a united
front to Putin and “yielded material outcomes on security guarantees.”
Yet we have seen this movie before. The promise of a one-on-one meeting that never materializes. The man known as Grandpa in his bunker in Russia ultimately walks back any promise of direct interaction with his nemesis, Zelensky. Putin’s Tuesday invitation to Zelensky to meet him in Moscow was disingenuous, and Ukraine promptly rejected it.
Nonetheless, as Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated Sunday on
ABC News, “You’re not going to end a war between Russia and Ukraine
without dealing with Putin.” That is true, but the problem is, no one
will say “No” to Putin. The White House has become a Burger King drive-thru for Putin, where the Russian dictator seems to believe he can “have it his way.”
For
Putin, peace requires Ukraine to withdraw from the Donbas — including
abandoning its invaluable Fortress Belt that has thwarted Russian ground
advances since the war began. If it does so, the White House believes
Putin would accept a NATO-like Article Five U.S. security guarantees
(perhaps watered-down) for Ukraine.
Yet such a peace would be fleeting. Trump’s Special Envoy Steven Witkoff is naively overvaluing Putin’s
offer to enshrine “legislative language [in Russia’s constitution] that
they would attest to not attempting to take any more land from Ukraine
after a peace deal [and] where they would attest to not violate any
European borders.”
Ukraine has already seen this one before. In the 1994 Budapest Memorandum,
Russia, the U.K. and the U.S. made security guarantees to Ukraine in
exchange for it signing the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear
Weapons. The signatories agreed to “respect the independence and
sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.” Furthermore, they
“reaffirm[ed] their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of
force against the territorial integrity or political independence of
Ukraine, and that none of their weapons [would] ever be used against
Ukraine.”
The Budapest guarantee
failed on Feb. 24, 2022, when Putin invaded Ukraine. [Actually, in 2014 when Putin annexed Crimea and started the war in Donbass - M. M.] Needless to say,
Ukraine is once bitten, twice shy. By “security guarantee,”
they require a legally binding treaty that
specifies ironclad commitments. As NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte told Fox News, “All the details have to be hammered out.”
Trump has ruled out sending
U.S. troops to Ukraine. The Kremlin rejects the presence of NATO forces
on the ground. NATO will not swim in the deep end without the presence
of a U.S. lifeguard.
And although Trump has suggested he will consider providing U.S. pilots and
warplanes as part of the security guarantees, authorizing them to
directly engage Russian aircraft — unless in self-defense — is unlikely.
As optimistic as many
want to be about the potential for a peace deal between Ukraine and
Russia, nothing has changed. Even the most junior of intelligence
analysts can see that the Kremlin is just angling for time. It needs
time to reset, to gain tactical and strategic advantages, and set the
conditions for a final push into Ukraine.
No
security guarantee that Russia agrees on will stop its next
invasion. Putin cannot and will not accept an independent Ukraine.
The
war stops when Putin stops attacking. Getting Putin to that point is
the solution. His cost calculus remains undetermined, but it is not
measured in human lives.
It is time Trump told Putin “Nyet!”"