I am interrupting the stream of old news with an actual one - from the Institute for the Study of War:
"Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 29, 2025
The Kremlin accused Ukraine of conducting a long-range drone strike targeting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence in Novgorod Oblast on December 29. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed that Ukrainian forces launched 91 long-range drones against Putin’s residence overnight on December 28 to 29 in Novgorod Oblast, likely referring to the residence in Valdai, Novgorod Oblast.[1] Lavrov claimed that Russian forces downed the drones and that the strike caused no damage. Lavrov condemned this alleged strike and stated that Russia will “revise” its negotiating position due to the strike. US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin had a phone call on December 29, and Russian Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov stated that Putin informed Trump about the claimed strike and told him that Russia will “reconsider” its position on peace agreements.[2] The United States has not published a readout of the December 29 Trump-Putin call as of this writing, though US officials — including Trump — confirmed the call occurred and that Putin made claims to Trump about the alleged strike.[3]
The circumstances of this alleged strike do not conform to the pattern of observed evidence when Ukrainian forces conduct strikes into Russia. Confirmed Ukrainian strikes in Russia typically generate evidence observable in open sources. Such evidence includes footage, often geolocated, of air defense operations, explosions, fires, or smoke plumes near targeted objects; statements from local and regional Russian authorities, usually downplaying successful Ukrainian strikes as “debris” from downed drones; and reports from local sources and media of fire or damage to such objects. ISW has not observed any such footage nor local or regional reporting about Ukrainian strikes near Putin’s residence to corroborate Lavrov’s claim. Lavrov’s claim of downing 89 Ukrainian drones over Novgorod Oblast is also inconsistent with the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD’s) claim that Russian forces downed 47 Ukrainian drones over the oblast overnight on December 28 to 29, further undermining the claim. Ukrainian forces previously struck numerous military targets in Novgorod Oblast, which produced evidence.[4] The Kremlin has offered no evidence to support its claim that Ukrainian forces targeted Putin’s residence on December 29.
Russian opposition outlet Sota published an investigation into the alleged strike on December 29, reporting that Valdai residents did not hear air defenses operating overnight, even though Russian air defenses would have had to operate to down up to 91 Ukrainian drones.[5] Sota reported that drones launched from Ukraine’s northern border would have to cross into heavily protected Russian airspace, including multiple installations of Strategic Missile Forces facilities, air defense units, military aviation, and other assets that would either be under heavy air defense protection or themselves act as the Russian air defense umbrella. Sota concluded that Ukraine would have been able to strike Putin’s residence in Valdai through a “miracle” or deliberate Russian military negligence. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL)’s Russia service reported in August 2025 that Russia increased the number of air defense systems defending Valdai from two to 12 from 2022 to August 2025.[6]
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky refuted the alleged strike against Putin’s residence in Novgorod Oblast and warned that Russia will use this claim to justify strikes against Kyiv City and Ukrainian government buildings.[7] Russia has already targeted Ukrainian government buildings in previous long-range strikes, including Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers building in Kyiv City in September 2025.[8] Lavrov stated that Russia has determined the targets and timing for retaliatory strikes against Ukraine but did not provide further specifics.[9] Russia has already intensified its long-range strike campaign against Ukraine in recent months, however, specifically targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure ahead of Winter 2025-2026.[10] Russia has notably intensified strikes against Ukraine around negotiations multiple times since the Trump administration began pursuing peace efforts in Winter 2025, including most recently overnight on December 26 to 27, ahead of Zelensky’s talks with Trump in Florida on December 28.[11] Russian overnight long-range strike packages purposefully target Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and disproportionately impact civilians.[12]
The Kremlin may intend to use this claimed strike to justify its rejection of any peace proposals that come out of recent bilateral US-Ukrainian and multilateral US-Ukrainian-European talks.[13] Ushakov’s readout of the December 29 Trump-Putin call criticized the US-Ukrainian framework, likely referring to the 20-point peace proposal, as “still leav[ing] room” for Ukraine to “avoid” unspecified obligations and rejected the notion of a ceasefire.[14] Since the Trump administration began peace efforts in January-February 2025, the Kremlin has sought to delay and prolong peace negotiations in order to continue its war undisturbed, prevent the U.S. from imposing measures intended to pressure Russia into meaningful negotiations, and even to extract concessions about bilateral US-Russian relations.[15]
Russian President Vladimir Putin and high-ranking Russian military commanders held another meeting to aggrandize tactical details and create the false impression that the front lines across Ukraine are on the verge of collapse. Putin met with the leadership of the Russian General Staff and grouping of forces commanders on December 29 — following a string of performative, publicized meetings between Putin and his commanders in recent weeks, including the most recent meeting on December 27.[16] Putin, Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov, and the groupings of forces commanders made a series of exaggerated claims about Russian successes across the battlefield, all of which rely on exaggerated quantitative data intended to obfuscate the relatively slow rate of Russian advances. Gerasimov claimed that Russian forces seized over 700 square kilometers and 32 settlements in Ukraine in December 2025 and 6,640 square kilometers and 334 settlements in total in 2025. ISW has observed evidence indicating a Russian presence (either through assaults or infiltration missions) in 480 square kilometers, and that Russian forces seized or completely infiltrated 23 settlements in December 2025. ISW has also observed evidence indicating a Russian presence in 4,952 square kilometers and seized or completely infiltrated 245 settlements in all of 2025. Russian Northern Grouping of Forces Commander Colonel General Yevgeny Nikiforov claimed that Russian forces seized 940 square kilometers in Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts in 2025. ISW has observed evidence to assess a Russian presence in 639 square kilometers in Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts during 2025. Nikiforov notably claimed that Russian forces have advanced to within 20 kilometers of Sumy City in 2025 — an implicit acknowledgement that Russian forces have advanced under seven kilometers deep in the area, given that Sumy City is located roughly 27 kilometers from the Sumy Oblast northern international border where Russian forces hold the deepest positions.
Putin and senior Russian military officials continued to heavily aggrandize Russian operations near Kupyansk despite all available evidence indicating that Ukrainian forces have liberated much of the town and surrounding area.[17] Russian Western Grouping of Forces Commander Colonel General Sergei Kuzovlev claimed that Russian forces will complete the encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Kupyansk in January to February 2026, which is incredibly slow compared to how long Russian officials have been making claims about nearly completing the seizure of Kupyansk.[18] ... Gerasimov and the other Russian commanders claimed that Russian forces seized Dibrova (northwest of Siversk), Drobysheve (northwest of Lyman), and Lukyanivske (northwest of Orikhiv) as of December 29. ISW has not observed geolocated evidence to assess any Russian presence in Dibrova or Drobysheve as of December 29, or that Russian forces completed the seizure of Lukyanivske. Russian Southern Grouping of Forces Commander Lieutenant General Sergei Medvedev claimed on December 29 that Russian forces have seized 40 to 45 percent of Kostyantynivka — contradicting Gerasimov’s December 27 claim that Russian forces seized over half of the buildings in Kostyantynivka.[21] ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces have operated in five percent of Kostyantynivka. Gerasimov claimed that Russian forces control over half of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast though ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces have operated in only six percent of Lyman...
The Kremlin is intensifying its efforts to portray the front line as imminently collapsing across the theater and claim that Russian forces are capable of imminently threatening Ukraine’s Fortress Belt. Available evidence continues to indicate that the front line is not collapsing, and Russian forces would require at least two to three years to seize all of Ukraine’s Fortress Belt.[22] Pro-war Russian ultranationalist milbloggers are publicly acknowledging that the Russian military command’s claims are exaggerated..."
***
When told by Putin about the alleged Ukrainian strike, Trump of course believed every word, and said that the news made him "very angry".
No comments:
Post a Comment