Putin is repeating in Europe the same strategy he used to take Crimea

From Unian:

""We're Not There": Russia's Crimean Strategy in Europe 

Sergey Kuzan, military expert, 24.09.25

Russia has repeatedly and deliberately violated NATO airspace, testing their reaction, yet  simultaneously expresses outrage at attempts to react against its audacity, and denies its involvement in these events. Furthermore, it is attempting to shift responsibility for its disregard for international security onto... Ukraine. 

For example, following the downing of Russian drones over Polish territory in early September, when Warsaw closed its airspace to civilian aviation along the borders with Belarus and Ukraine until December 9, 2025, and NATO launched Operation Eastern Guard, Polish journalists discovered an IPSO activated by Moscow in the Polish segment of social media.

In particular, Russian media and propaganda outlets attempted to shift the blame for the massive drone sightings in Polish skies to Ukraine, while simultaneously displaying obvious nervousness about NATO's reaction. For example, they spread the theory that Russian drones were allegedly redirected into Polish airspace by highly powerful Ukrainian electronic warfare systems. Allegedly, Ukraine orchestrated the downing of the drones in Poland to frame Russia. Thus, the publication "Tsargrad," controlled by Russian oligarch Konstantin Malofeev, blaming Ukraine, expressed outrage: Isn't anyone in NATO bothered by the fact that only 46 countries out of 193 UN members supported the statement acknowledging Russia's involvement in the drone incident in Poland?

The mass promotion of narratives about "Ukrainian provocation," "the weakness of Polish government," and "NATO inaction" was clearly a coordinated campaign. It pursued several goals: to sow discord in Polish society, undermine trust in the government, and portray the Alliance as indifferent to Poland. Moscow also tried to put on an innocent face after three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets violated Estonian airspace. The Russian Ministry of Defense brazenly claimed that this was a scheduled flight from Karelia to an airfield in the Kaliningrad region. The planes did not deviate from the agreed-upon route and committed no violations, as they were flying over neutral waters.

In reality, by turning off their transponders and refusing to communicate when invited, flooding the information space with a plethora of theories, the Russians are continuing a familiar narrative with the Europeans: "It wasn't us," "We're not there." In fact, this is precisely how Russia's creeping offensive on Crimea began 11 years ago. And subsequently, on Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Now Moscow is attempting to apply this well-tested method of hybrid warfare to NATO countries. Therefore, knowing the Russians' appetites, there is no doubt that in the absence of a clear and decisive response from the Alliance, they will become increasingly brazen."