Putin's main goals for 2025

Analyst Alexey Kopytko in the Obozrevatel:

"Putin is attempting to achieve his main goal for 2025 through provocations in NATO countries

September 20, 2025 

Putin had two foreign policy objectives for 2025:

Prevent a real tightening of sanctions; 

 

Block arms aid to Ukraine. 

 

The first objective has been more or less successfully achieved. The US is not imposing sanctions, and European sanctions have limited influence. 

 

The second objective has not been achieved. Europe is providing arms, financing Ukrainian production, and the US has allowed Ukraine to purchase its weapons with European funds. This precludes Russia from achieving success in the war within a reasonable time frame and at a reasonable cost.

So Putin is trying to find ways to stop European aid. Subversion and sabotage. Cyberattacks. Demonstrative acts of aggression against Europe that (for now) do not constitute a military threat. And so on. 

 

All of this will be converted into calls to stop supporting Ukraine.

 

Putin is counting on the short-sightedness of European societies and the politicians' desire to live within short political cycles. 

 

What's the Kremlin's next step after the hypothetical halt to aid? It's quite obvious: at a minimum, demanding Ukraine's neutrality; at a maximum, diverting Ukraine's resources to Russia's side. 

 

Currently, there's no war in the EU solely because ALL Russian forces are tied to Ukraine. If Russia were to free up even a third of these forces, the scenario for a number of countries would be very grim. Everyone understands this, but they're embarrassed to say so. 

 

The EU's solution isn't to try to prolong the war and try to prepare, buying time with Ukrainian blood. This won't help. It will only increase the likelihood of Ukraine's neutrality and dramatically increase the risk of Ukrainian resources being diverted to Russia.

 

The solution lies in a military alliance with Ukraine and taking actions appropriate to wartime. 

 

For example, the first step between Ukraine and Europe could be eliminating the "black hole" of the Transdnistria. This is in everyone's interests. At the same time, it will be verified whether the Moldovan authorities truly want to move toward Europe. 

 

 Basically, that's all there is to it regarding the 12 minutes of air strikes and other similar incidents, which are certain to happen."