Medvedev threatens Finland

From the Institute for the Study of War:

"Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 8, 2025

Russian Security Council Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev directly threatened Finland and used language that directly mirrors the Kremlin’s false justifications for its invasions of Ukraine. Medvedev claimed in an opinion piece for Kremlin newswire TASS on September 8 that the “main thing” that Finland should not “forget” is that confrontation with Russia “could lead to the collapse of Finnish statehood forever.”[1] Medvedev claimed that Finland is historically tied to Nazi Germany and that Finnish authorities in the 1940s wanted to expand Finland’s borders to include Eastern Karelia, Leningrad (modern-day St. Petersburg), and the Kola Peninsula – areas in modern-day Russia. Medvedev claimed that the current Finnish government is “Russophobic,” and that “the thirst for profit at the expense of Russia was installed in Finnish minds back in the days of Hitler.” Medvedev claimed that Finnish authorities historically attempted to erase the “historical and cultural identity” of ethnic Russians and to commit genocide against the Slavic population. Medvedev claimed that Finland joined NATO under the “guise” of defense but is actually preparing for war against Russia – ignoring the fact that Finland abandoned its long held military neutrality to join NATO in direct response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of neighboring Ukraine in 2022. Medvedev claimed that NATO will use Finland as “a springboard for an attack” on Russia.

Medvedev’s September 8 claims about Finland’s alleged persecution of ethnic Russians, destruction of Russian culture, ties to Nazism, and threat to Russia’s security directly parallel claims that the Kremlin has used to justify its invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022. Medvedev claimed that the “root causes” of the current state of Russian-Finnish relations go back to the Second World War.[2] Medvedev’s use of the phrase “root causes” mirrors that which Kremlin officials have repeatedly invoked to justify Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Kremlin officials have claimed that any future peace settlement in Ukraine must eliminate the “root causes” of the war, which Kremlin officials have defined as NATO’s eastward expansion and Ukraine’s alleged discrimination against Russian-speakers.[3]

Medvedev’s threat against Finland is not unique but rather part of an ongoing Kremlin effort to threaten NATO states and justify future Russian aggression. Russian Presidential Aide and former Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev similarly claimed on March 13 that Finland tried to “exterminate” the Slavic population and that the West is “again turning [Finland] into a springboard” for aggression against Russia.[4] Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened Finland in December 2023, claiming that NATO “dragged” Finland into the alliance and that “there will be problems” with Finland.[5] Russian officials have been increasingly invoking narratives about Finland’s historic ties to Russia, and Russian information operations targeting Finland have long covered topics such as Finland’s history as a Nazi ally during the Second World War, Finnish intent to gain lost territories, and the West’s preparations to use Finland to threaten northwestern Russia.[6] The Kremlin has been employing the same playbook that it used against Ukraine towards NATO states, such as Finland and the Baltics, to set informational conditions for possible future Russian aggression.[7]"